By MARTIN WALKER
UPI Editor Emeritus
PARIS, Nov. 26 (UPI) --
The trains in France are running on time again, mostly. The strikers are going back to work, mostly, having failed to win public support for their battle against the government's plans to reform the labor market. And a couple of crazed militants who tried to enforce the strike by putting concrete blocks on a high-speed rail line are under arrest.
To celebrate his claim of victory French President Nicolas Sarkozy is on a three-day trip to China. This means he thinks it's safe to leave home, though Parisian stores were recording dramatic falls in trade as commuters stayed home.
This was the key battle of the reforms that Sarkozy pledged in this year's election campaign. Early next year a new law comes into force that will require key industries like power and transport to keep functioning, strikes or no strikes. If the French labor unions were going to defeat Sarkozy and maintain their traditional power to bring the country to a halt, as they did in a similar confrontation in 1995, they had to do it before the end of this year.
At first sight, it seems Sarkozy has won in what the French media had dubbed his "Thatcher moment," after the way British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher fought and won a long, hard strike by the coal miners to break the power of the unions. That is what Sarkozy is claiming.
"I promised this reform and kept my word," he declared.
But the price is far more than Thatcher ever paid. To tempt the unions back into talks, the French rail corporation SNCF offered a financial package worth almost $150 million a year in higher salaries and pensions.
"We displayed at the same time firmness, determination, and a great capacity to listen which has enabled the labor unions to rediscover, sadly after nine days of confrontation, the path of negotiation," commented Prime Minister Francois Fillon.
The pro-government daily Le Figaro noted that this was just the first battle, albeit a crucial test, in what promises to be a much longer struggle.
"We all know that the president plans further earth-shaking changes. If the pension reform -- the mother of all reforms -- has convinced public opinion that things had to change in the country, it will have greatly served the designs of the president," Le Figaro said.
That particular battle had already been won, in that Sarkozy could claim a powerful mandate from the election to reform the country's labor market, to tame the power of the unions, and above all to reintroduce the culture of work into France. The previous left-wing government had installed the 35-hour week, and high taxes and social insurance charges had eroded the benefits of overtime. Sarkozy's emblematic reform was to declare that in the future French workers would not pay taxes or social charges on their overtime earnings.
The immediate focus of the rail strike was over the right of railway workers to retire early on full pension, some at age 50. Sarkozy pledged to bring all French employees, including the 5.2 million state employees who make up a quarter of the entire workforce, into line with a minimum number of years paying into the pension system. He has also pledged to replace only one out of every two civil servants who retire.
That was why one day during the nine-day rail strike teachers, postal staff, nurses, air-traffic controllers, tax officials and other civil servants staged a one-day protest strike. Only one in three civil servants joined in, but the action closed many schools and left hospitals providing minimum services. At the same time, protesting students disrupted classes in more than 40 of the country's 85 universities in a separate campaign against a new law that lets universities raise funds from private companies.
So for that one day, just about all of Sarkozy's opponents turned out against him, failed to shake his resolve, and the rail strike has fizzled out. Above all, Sarkozy kept a majority of public opinion on his side, despite the long French tradition of solidarity with striking workers and protesters.
The price to the French economy, according to Finance Minister Christine Lagarde, was running at around $500 million a day, close to $5 billion in all. If it was a real victory for Sarkozy's reforms, the price will be worth paying. But the eventual small print of the deal with the rail unions, and the prospect of further troubles with the civil servants and particularly the nurses and teachers, means that the final verdict is yet to come.
And while Sarkozy has taken a hit in his personal approval ratings, they could recover if he can persuade French voters that the real point of his "Thatcher moment" was to force through his reforms with far less use of raw state power, far less resentment and far less social divisiveness than the Iron Lady inflicted on Britain.
That would be a real success. But new opinion polls Friday found that two-thirds of French consumers claim to have seen a fall in their purchasing power over the past year, which casts an ominous cloud over Sarkozy's future.
"If Nicolas Sarkozy were triumphant, we'd know it. He's the kind that likes to congratulate himself. If he is discreet, it is because he knows that another player has entered the social battle -- the cost of living," commented L'Est Republicain newspaper.© 2007 United Press International. All Rights Reserved.
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