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You are here:  Home / Emerging Threats / Commentary: Geopolitical nightmare

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Commentary: Geopolitical nightmare

By ARNAUD DE BORCHGRAVE, UPI Editor at Large
Published: Nov. 5, 2007 at 9:10 AM
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WASHINGTON, Nov. 5 (UPI) -- One of the world’s eight nuclear powers, Pakistan is now a failing state out of control where Taliban, al-Qaida and their supporters have secured their privileged sanctuaries in the tribal areas on the Afghan border; reoccupied the Red Mosque in the center of Islamabad; launched suicide bombers in widely scattered parts of this Muslim country of 160 million. More than any other country in the world, Pakistan is the breeding ground of Islamic terrorism. Yet it enjoys the status of “major non-NATO ally” of the U.S. Now 60 years old, Pakistan has lived under military dictatorship for half its life.

In 1999, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, the army chief of staff (the country’s supreme military commander), seized power and decreed martial law. Last week, with Pakistan spinning out of control, Musharraf staged his second coup, decreed a state of emergency (tantamount to martial law), dismissed the Supreme Court, suspended the constitution, arrested some 1,500 politicians, lawyers and human rights activists, closed down all 50 TV channels except the one controlled by the government, imposed self-censorship on the print media, and appointed new Supreme Court judges willing to follow orders.

Twice deposed as prime minister, Benazir Bhutto returned to Pakistan Oct. 18 after eight years of self-imposed exile, in what she thought was a power-sharing deal with Musharraf. He had agreed to doff his uniform and run for president in a free election. As head of her Pakistan People’s Party, Pakistan’s most popular, Bhutto would run in elections scheduled for January and if her party won a majority, she would become prime minister. Musharraf also guaranteed the deletion of a little constitutional impediment – political leaders are barred from serving three times as head of government. Everything began to unravel when two suicide bombers attacked her triumphal homecoming parade, killing 142 and injuring over 400.

Musharraf, meanwhile, got himself re-elected president by a majority of members of four provincial assemblies, the federal assembly and the senate – but all opposition parties boycotted the balloting and Musharraf feared the Supreme Court would not validate his election. His second coup d’etat followed.

Bhutto flew back to Dubai, her residence in exile, to reassure her three children who had watched the attack on television. She returned to Karachi as security forces were deploying throughout major cities. In a Nov. 3 e-mail to this reporter, Bhutto said, “Those who support the Taliban and oppose me continue to have high positions in government. Musharraf doesn’t remove them nor has he kept any of the promises he made guaranteed by third parties. Yesterday (before Musharraf’s state of emergency), television channels broadcast a meeting in Bajaur (one of the seven tribal agencies that border Afghanistan) by a mullah claiming that he and his group will kill me in Rawalpindi (where she was scheduled to attend a PPP rally, now banned).”

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