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Analysis: Poland in political turmoil


Published: Aug. 17, 2007 at 12:39 PM
By STEFAN NICOLA
UPI Correspondent
BERLIN, Aug. 17 (UPI) -- Poland has been in political turmoil for months, but this time the collapse of the government seems to be certain. Early elections are looming, and observers hope this will end the political instability that has paralyzed the European Union's biggest former communist country.

This past weekend Polish Prime Minister Jaroslav Kaczynski sacked the ministers of his two junior coalition parties, announcing a continuation of the government was no longer possible.

“I expect early elections by the end of this year,” Dieter Bingen, director of the German Poland Institute, a Darmstadt-based think tank dedicated to the study of Poland, told United Press International in a telephone interview.

Elections are not due until 2009, but the political war that has been waged for months between the party of the Kaczynskis, which includes the premier's twin brother, Lech, the president, and its two small coalition partners, the reactionary, some say right-wing extremist League of Polish Families and the populist Sambroona Party, has brought the government to a collapse.

The coalition first tumbled almost a year ago, when Kaczynski fired Andrzej Lepper, the deputy premier and leader of Sambroona, because of a quarrel over finance and defense policy. The premier invited him back into the coalition not even a month later because of poor poll ratings to prevent early elections.

The latest crisis erupted in early July, when the premier again sacked Lepper over corruption allegations, and Sambroona said it was leaving the coalition.

Bingen said that Jaroslav Kaczynski from the start of the coalition has pursued the strategy to “marginalize” his coalition partners.

“The prime minister has a key hand in poisoning the political discourse in Poland,” Bingen told UPI. “His political style has led to political divisions and to a destruction of the democratic political culture more alarming than the post-Communism networks and the corruption he is fighting against.”

While the twins have never been hugely popular in Poland, their popularity ratings fell earlier this year when Poland embarked on a steady course of self-isolation within Europe.

Ahead of the past European Union summit, when German Chancellor Angela Merkel wanted to revive the body's constitution, Poland with Nazi-era references sought to pressure Germany to give into Polish claims for a voting system different than the one Berlin (and virtually all other EU countries) had in mind.

While Britain's plan to opt out of the common justice system may have been much more controversial than the Polish voting system demand, the Kaczynskis got all the bad press because of their rhetoric.

“The political rhetoric of the Kaczynskis is often destructive rather than constructive,” Bingen said. “They are permanently on the lookout for enemies, internal or external.”

This hasn't cost them too much voting potential, however. While the aggressive course has driven away some supporters, the Kaczynskis could fish away voters from the smaller parties. Poland's continuously booming economy has also kept some trouble away.

The outcome of the elections is nevertheless a gamble, because there are no real alternatives when it comes to political programs.

There are scenarios that would exclude PiS from government, but a coalition government with PiS without Jaroslav Kaczynski in some sort of a leadership role is “unthinkable,” Bingen said.

A likely future coalition could contain PiS, the Law and Justice party of the Kaczynskis, and the liberal People's Platform, a team-up that could possibly tame the aggressive Kaczynskis and prevent further conflicts with Brussels.

“A lot of people simply hope that a new coalition at least introduces a change of style,” Bingen said.


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