WASHINGTON, May 7 (UPI) -- Ostensibly, pro-Moscow Chechen leaders have presented the Russian government with a challenge resembling the one posed by their pro-independence predecessors: They have called for the expansion of Chechnya's borders or even the creation of a single -- and presumably Chechen-led -- North Caucasus Republic.
In widely reported comments on April 24, Dukvakha Abdurakhmanov, the speaker of the Chechen parliament, has said that the reunification of Ingushetia with Chechnya would help to create "stability in the region" and eliminate "forever" sources of tension in that portion of the northern Caucasus.
But the Chechen leader did not stop at that. He suggested that it would be a good idea to begin considering the possibility of "creating in the south of Russia a new region," one that would include within its borders not only Chechnya and Ingushetia but neighboring Daghestan as well.
Also on April 24 on Ekho Moskvy radio, Ruslan Yamadayev, who represents Chechnya in the State Duma, the main chamber of the Russian parliament, developed these ideas further. "The Chechens and Ingush are a single people," he insisted, and it was "a very big mistake" to have them living in separate republics.
But reuniting these two peoples should be only the beginning, Yamadayev said, pointedly noting that it was his "hope" and "dream" that the entire North Caucasus will come together into a single republic in the near future. Indeed, he said, "there ought to be a single Caucasus."
On the one hand, these Grozny politicians are simply taking advantage of Russian President Vladimir Putin's campaign to reduce the number of federal units by expanding the size of a limited number of them, a drive that over the last few weeks has run into what appears to be a brick wall in Adygeia.
But on the other hand, such calls are another indication of how independent the pro-Moscow Chechen leaders currently feel themselves to be and, according to one Moscow analyst at least, "repeat to a remarkable degree" appeals by pro-independent Chechens for the expansion of that republic's borders and its influence across the region.
In an article posted online in late April, Sergei Markedonov, who specializes on developments in the Caucasus, argues that such Chechen aspirations are unlikely to be realized given the opposition of the leaders and populations of the other republics in that region.
Other Moscow commentators concur. [See, among others, the commentary at politcom.ru/print.php?id=2614.] But even if these projections are correct -- and they likely are at present -- the statements of Abdurakhmanov and Yamadayev are important for three reasons, all of which are likely to create new problems for Moscow.
First, such calls highlight the fact that the differences between pro-Moscow and anti-Moscow Chechens are far less than many in the Russian capital and the West have thought. Consequently, Moscow's reliance on the one to fight the other may matter less than meets the eye.
Second, these latest Chechen appeals are yet another indication that Moscow's desire to redraw the borders of the country's regions and republics is extremely dangerous, especially in the northern Caucasus, where calls by one group that may enjoy Moscow's backing are likely to be answered by those of groups the center does not back.
And third, and perhaps most significantly, these clear statements of what Chechens would like to see could further exacerbate interethnic tensions in the region. On the one hand, that could work to Moscow's advantage if it increases the role of ethnicity relative to Islam.
However, such tensions could lead to new conflicts within and among Chechnya's neighbors, and unless Moscow were able to respond more effectively than it has in the past, such conflicts could quickly open the way for Islamic radicals to mobilize the masses there.
Should that occur, these latest Chechen appeals, now so quickly dismissed by Moscow analysts and experts, might have the effect of changing not only the borders of Chechnya but also the borders of other entities as well.
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(Paul Goble teaches at the EuroCollege of the University of Tartu in Estonia.)
