WASHINGTON, Nov. 3 (UPI) -- If tea leaves could talk, they would say a conference on Iraq is an idea whose time may have arrived.
It was first proposed by Democratic Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts in his presidential election campaign, and that was enough to have it ignored by the victorious Bush administration. But in the past month, it has resurfaced as a possible exit from the morass of violence and political uncertainty of post-war Iraq.
The Arab League offered to sponsor an Iraqi national reconciliation conference that would include all Iraqi groups.
Speaking in Baghdad recently, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal said all political factions in Iraq would participate, and the aim would be to seek a wide national consensus.
An Arab source said Wednesday Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa was at the United Nations to test member reaction to the proposal.
On Sunday, a similar concept was advanced by Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska in a speech at Iowa State University.
"Once the Iraqi government is in place (after January), the United States, along with its allies, should propose a regional security conference on Iraq with the endorsement of the United Nations," Hagel said.
"Creating this regional context is vital. ... Such a conference would give us another opportunity to help rebuild an international consensus on Iraq and address the regional complexities of the Middle East. More missed opportunities on Iraq will be disastrous for the United States, Iraq and the region."
A spokesman for the senator told United Press International Thursday the contents of the speech was all Hagel was prepared to say on the subject in public, but that he would have "more to say about this in coming weeks."
A related effort involves an international advisory body called the Eminent Persons Group, which advises U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan on special political affairs.
Based on consultations with all relevant parties to the conflict, the group is helping to advance "an all-party conference" that would be convened by the Iraqis, according to Albrecht Gero Muth, the group's deputy executive director.
Muth says the Bush administration is aware of the proposal and is discreetly encouraging further exploration.
The all-party proposal would differ from the regional and international conference ideas on objectives, goals and sequencing. Whereas others talk about internationalizing Iraq, the U.N.-backed proposal is predicated on the assumption of Iraq taking control of its own destiny.
"The whole baby has to be an Iraqi baby," Muth explains.
The emphasis on Iraqi self-determination recalls the loya jirga, the tribal council organized in Afghanistan in 2002 that confirmed the newly liberated country's republican form of government and its constitutional framework.
Co-chaired by Alpha Oumar Konare, chair of the African Union Commission and an internationally prominent Muslim, the Eminent Persons Group has great credibility in Arab and Muslim circles.
Muth says one main element in the conference proposal involves the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Iraq rather than their replacement with an international peacekeeping force.
"It cannot be the objective to have one set of foreign forces relieve another set of foreign forces," Muth says. "The conference would be based on the premise that the time has come for Iraqis to reclaim their own national destiny. That presupposes a national process of conciliation convened under competent Iraqi authority, political or religious, with the objective of attaining non-interference by outside forces."
One key question that needs to be determined in the preparation phase would be defining the limits of the conference's inclusiveness. To what extent -- if any -- would the insurgents be allowed at the conference table? Indeed, is such a conference either possible or meaningful without the direct or indirect participation of some elements of the insurgency?
According to Muth, "Renunciation of terrorism is a prerequisite for inclusion in the domestic political process."
Under a recently approved U.N. Security Council definition, endorsed by the United States, terrorism is defined as the indiscriminate use of violence against civilians.
"What a triumph it would be to get the insurgents to agree to cease attacks on civilians, in what they perceive to be occupied lands," Muth muses. "What is the price we are willing to pay for this concession?"
On the other hand, one advantage an all-party conference would have over a regional conference is that it avoids the problem of participation by neighboring Syria and Iran, which would be unacceptable to Washington.
Muth says Moscow and the European Union are "in the loop" about the conference proposal. Meanwhile, U.S. officials declined to be drawn into a discussion on an Iraq conference.
