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Researchers create model to predict sudden cardiac arrest

Based on 12 risk factors, researchers say risk for sudden cardiac arrest could be predicted.

By Stephen Feller

PHILADELPHIA, Aug. 23 (UPI) -- While many heart conditions can be predicted and monitored based on warning signs, sudden cardiac death occurs in many patients without prior signs, making it difficult to reduce the number of people who die from it with no warning.

Researchers at the University of Pennsylvania have identified 12 markers for risk that could make it easier to prevent sudden cardiac death, according to a new study published in the journal Circulation.

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Sudden cardiac arrest is one of the top causes of death in the United States, claiming more than 300,000 lives per year. Cardiac conditions can make sudden cardiac arrest more likely, however most are not aware they are at risk and most die outside of the hospital because without nearly immediate care patients cannot be saved.

While some risk factors are known -- men are at higher risk than women, age increases risk, black people with other cardiac conditions and people with arrhythmias or a family history of sudden cardiac arrest -- they have not helped doctors prevent death from the heart unexpectedly stopping.

"Our findings provide a strong step toward distinguishing SCD risk across the general population and can help target future strategies at SCD prevention for the highest risk subgroups of the general population," Dr. Rajat Deo, an assistant professor of cardiovascular medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, said in a press release. "What's more, use of this risk model could lead to pinpointing specific communities with higher risk populations, ideally leading to increased training and awareness for emergency medical staff, volunteers and the general public in those regions."

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Based on a review of medical records for 13,677 participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study and 4,207 participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study who did not have cardiovascular disease, the researchers were able to find 12 indicators of risk for sudden cardiac death.

Among participants in both studies, the researchers found 345 sudden cardiac death events, winnowing down 12 risk factors from their medical records: age, sex, race, smoking, systolic blood pressure, use of antihypertensive medication, diabetes, serum potassium, serum albumin, HDL levels, estimated glomerular filtration rate and QT interval in the heart's electrical cycle.

The researchers also reported that low left ventricular ejection fraction, generally thought of a primary marker for sudden cardiac death, was present in just one percent of participants in either study and did not affect their risk.

"Sudden cardiac death is a significant public health concern, and the rates of decline have not paralleled those observed for other cardiovascular conditions such as heart attack or stroke," Deo said. "The American Health Association and American College of Cardiology developed a risk equation for determining generalized cardiovascular risk in 2013, but this is the first time an SCD-specific prediction model has been developed and validated."

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