U.S. obesity peak may be years away

BOSTON, Nov. 5 (UPI) -- A mathematical model created by researchers at Harvard University says the U.S. obesity epidemic won't plateau until at least 42 percent of adults are obese.

Researchers at Harvard's Program for Evolutionary Dynamics, Biophysics Program and colleagues used 40 years of Framingham Heart Study data for the model.

The researchers broke U.S. obesity increase into three components:

-- The rate at which obesity has spread through social networks, or transfer from person to person.

-- The rate of non-social transmission of obesity, such as easier access to unhealthy foods or sedentary lifestyles.

-- The rate of "recovery" defined as weight loss sufficient to get body mass index back below 30.

The study, published in the journal PLoS Computational Biology, challenges recent assertions by some that the obesity rate, which has been at 34 percent for the past five years, may have peaked.

The model suggests the U.S. population may not reach its peak obesity level for another 40 years, the researchers say.