Short-term school closings may worsen flu

PITTSBURGH, Dec. 31 (UPI) -- Closing schools for less than two weeks during a flu pandemic may increase infection rates and prolong an epidemic, U.S. researchers said.

Researchers at the University of Pittsburgh developed from a series of computer simulations of a flu pandemic based on U.S. census data.

Short-duration school closures can increase transmission rates by returning susceptible students back to school in the middle of an epidemic when they are most vulnerable to infection, the researchers say.

"Although closing schools may seem like a reasonable way to slow the spread of flu, we found that it was not effective unless sustained for at least eight weeks after implementation," lead author Dr. Bruce Lee, an assistant professor at the University of Pittsburgh says in a statement.

"Closing schools quickly at the start of an outbreak was much less important than keeping them closed continually throughout the epidemic."

The study was based on a computer simulation model of Allegheny County, Pa., that represented the county's population, school systems, workplaces, households and communities.

Simulations were based on the movement of residents each weekday from their households to designated workplaces or schools, and included 1.2 million people -- 200,000 of whom were school-aged children. The study also included more than 500,000 households and nearly 300 schools.