Pandemic model shows vaccine reducing flu

TORONTO, Oct. 13 (UPI) -- A Canadian simulation model found early action, especially rapid roll out of vaccines, is effective in reducing the spread of H1N1 influenza, researchers say.

Researchers at the University of Toronto, the Ontario Agency for Health Protection and Promotion, and the Research Institute of the Hospital for Sick Children in Toronto and University of Guelph in Guelph, say the model simulated a pandemic outbreak based on demographic information from London, a midsized city in Ontario.

The study authors simulated a large range of possible scenarios that may play out in reality, to determine whether any general conclusions could be drawn.

The model captures how vaccination not only protects vaccinated people but can also help the healthcare system cope by flattening the peak of the outbreak and delaying the peak. The model provides mathematical predictions for how and when that could happen.

"The results of our pandemic influenza simulation model suggest that vaccination can have a disproportionately large impact on reducing the attack rate in a 'fall wave,' although delays can significantly erode its effectiveness," Dr. Marija Zivkovic Gojovic and study co-authors say in a statement.

The findings are published in the Canadian Medical Association Journal.