Analysis: Pandemic flu to hit poor hardest

WASHINGTON, Jan. 30 (UPI) -- There is still a serious threat of a global flu pandemic, health experts said Thursday, and uninsured and low-income Americans could be among those hit hardest.

Experts say that it is not a question of "if" but "when" another flu pandemic -- on the scale of the disastrous one that struck in 1918 -- will occur.

"There will be a flu pandemic, and it will be a disaster and kill many people," Andrew Pavia, chief of pediatric infectious diseases at the University of Utah, told congressional staffers at a briefing Tuesday.

In the event of such a pandemic, one in three Americans could become ill, and nearly 2 million would die, he said. People who might be ill and those caring for sick family members would be encouraged to stay home, meaning up to half of the civilian labor force could be absent at once. Schools could also be closed for weeks or months.

That means the nation's nearly 47 million uninsured Americans -- and the providers that treat them -- could face crippling medical costs, Jeff Levi, executive director of the Trust for America's Health, told United Press International. If uninsured people delay needed care, it could also help spread the virus.

When there is a "public health emergency, something should be put in place for the coverage of healthcare," Levi said. "It no longer has just individual consequences, it has society-wide consequences."

At the moment, the secretary of health and human services does not have the authority to put emergency coverage in place even if a public health emergency is declared, he said.

There is also no plan for dealing with the closing of schools, Margaret Hamburg, senior scientist at the Nuclear Threat Initiative, said at the briefing.

If schools are closed for an extended period, parents who rely on them for childcare will be forced to look elsewhere or find a way to stay home. Nearly 30 million children from low-income families also depend on their schools for low-cost or free lunches. There is now no plan in place to help parents afford nutritious meals when schools are closed.

Low-income individuals may also lack sick leave, meaning they have the choice of going to work sick or staying home and suffering the financial consequences, said Georges Benjamin, executive director of the American Public Health Association.

For those individuals, "if you don't work, you don't eat," Benjamin told UPI. "That is a very big issue."

After the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001, and the devastation wrought by Hurricane Katrina, many individuals were left without health coverage, he said. National and local authorities "did a patchwork of coverage for a few people, but that wasn't good enough."

"We need to have a process to take care of people uninsured in times of disaster."

Solutions to these problems are not necessarily forthcoming.

Both the Department of Health and Human Services and President Bush have encouraged businesses to adopt liberal leave policies in the event of a pandemic.

Sen. Ted Kennedy, D-Mass., has also proposed legislation requiring employers to offer seven days of paid sick leave.

But ultimately, the best solution is to find a way to cover the uninsured all the time, Benjamin said.

"Getting our nation covered is an essential action our nation needs for preparedness."