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Face value for OPEC deal lifts oil prices

Oil prices reverse course following the plummet that greeted Saudi Arabia's scale-back comments.

By Daniel J. Graeber
Oil prices recover lost ground in a week that will be volatile given upcoming production data from OPEC and the inauguration of Donald Trump. File photo by Monika Graff/UPI
Oil prices recover lost ground in a week that will be volatile given upcoming production data from OPEC and the inauguration of Donald Trump. File photo by Monika Graff/UPI | License Photo

NEW YORK, Jan. 17 (UPI) -- The outlook for a sustained price point for crude oil prices in the mid-$50 range offset questions about OPEC commitments to send markets higher early Tuesday.

Crude oil prices sank lower in trading Monday softened by a federal holiday in the United States. Saudi Arabia said it might not need to extend a production agreement deep into 2017 just as most of the parties to a November deal were eager to show compliance.

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Broader markets, meanwhile, are reacting to sentiments from the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. The situation was compounded further by sentiments on growth from the International Monetary Fund, which forecast global growth for 2017, but widespread uncertainty given the lack of clear policies expressed by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.

Bob Dudley, the CEO at British energy company BP, told Bloomberg Television from Davos that volatility was expected, though the November production agreement from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries was acting as a market stabilizer.

"If you look at what is happening around the world in terms of reductions of output, it does appear real," he said. "The countries are coordinating and they are working to reduce output -- and we're at $55 [per barrel], $56 versus $45 beforehand, so it's significant for countries and companies in our industry."

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Dudley's comments offset the pessimism that greeted statements Monday from Saudi Arabia. The price for Brent crude oil was up 2 percent about a half hour before the start of trading in New York to $56.56 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark price, was up 1.5 percent to $53.18 per barrel minutes before the open.

From his point of view, Dudley said BP was planning on oil prices averaged about $55 per barrel.

Market direction this week will be fluid, with a monthly report from OPEC this week expected to offer a hint on compliance and supply and demand factors for 2017. Broader markets will be influenced in part by the inauguration of a U.S. president who already lobbed critiques at long-standing precedence on China, Russia and global trade measures.

Tamas Varga, an analyst at broker PVM, said 2017 could be dramatic given the geopolitical issues at stake.

"The global political and economic crises experiences last year will continue well into 2017," Varga said in an emailed report. "If this, in fact, will be the case, global oil demand will likely be negatively affected."

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