"The Blu-ray format is in jeopardy simply because the advent of downloadable HD movies is so close," Roger L. Kay, president of the research and consulting company Endpoint Technologies Associates, told The New York Times. "Streaming video from the Internet and other means of direct digital delivery are going to put optical formats out of business entirely over the next few years."

However, Blu-ray's supporters told The Times Blu-ray discs are proving popular with consumers and players are selling faster than DVD players did when they first came out. The newspaper said the fact that the prices of Blu-ray players have been coming down also should mean people will buy more of them than they did last year, although consumers are still expected to buy more DVD players than Blu-ray players in 2009.

"What we saw in 2008 was increasing adoption of Blu-ray along with decreasing hardware prices," said Reed Hastings, the chief executive of Netflix. "The window of opportunity for DVD and Blu-ray discs is longer than most people think. But it's not going to last forever."

"2009 is going to be our growth year," said Andy Parsons, chairman of the Blu-ray Disc Association. "We think this year we'll start to see the format really take off into the mass market."