WASHINGTON, Oct. 31 (UPI) -- The geostrategic consequences and potential economic and military costs of Georgia's five-day August military misadventure with Russia over South Ossetia and Abkhazia are slowly becoming evident. The West, which uncritically largely lined up behind Georgia's version of events, has committed billions of dollars to Georgia's reconstruction, but two intertwined issues thus far have been ignored.
The first is the possible consequences for future Western energy projects of Georgia's vulnerability as a transit corridor for Caspian hydrocarbons as demonstrated by the five-day war.
The second are the implications of rash promises by a number of Western political leaders to support Georgian ambitions for NATO membership, one of the underlying causes of the outbreak of hostility. As Georgia apparently believes that it will gain some sort of military arrangement with the West and/or the United States that will rein in Russian actions, it has chosen to withdraw from the Commonwealth of Independent States, an action that it may well regret, should conflict again break out.
The conflict's fallout is even having an impact on the U.S. presidential election. On Aug. 12 John McCain said he had spoken to Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili that day, saying, "I told him that I know I speak for every American when I say to him, 'Today we are all Georgians.'" If McCain wins the election, Tbilisi is guaranteed a friend in the White House. During the second presidential debate on Oct. 7, while not adopting as strident a tone as McCain, Barack Obama stated that "Georgia in particular is now on the brink of enormous economic challenges."
U.S. tax dollars already have begun flowing to Georgia for reconstruction. Earlier this month international donors pledged $4.55 billion and on Oct. 22, Henrietta H. Fore, the administrator of the United States Agency for International Development and director of U.S. Foreign Assistance, announced, "Today the United States is pledging to make available $1 billion over the next two years to meet humanitarian needs and facilitate reconstruction."
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