WASHINGTON, March 2 (UPI) -- The situation in Lebanon these days has become a microcosm of the rest of the region, a mirror of the troubled Middle East: volatile, complex and explosive. Lebanon, much like the rest of the region, is living in a precarious calm, though one that could erupt into a generalized Middle East conflict at any moment.
Volatile, because there are so many different subplots to the Middle East conflict today that the issues have become far more complicated and worrisome. "A major regional war is not inconceivable," warned a high-ranking foreign diplomat who is well acquainted with the region and its conflicts, and who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Although war in the Middle East is not imminent, the risk of a generalized regional conflagration nevertheless is closer than most people realize. Among the fuses that could ignite the next fire is the continued lack of progress on the all-but-dead peace talks between Palestinians and Israelis, and what many Arab leaders have been complaining about of late: Iran's interference in Arab affairs. And next June's parliamentary elections in Lebanon.
Complex, because the arrival of Iran and Islamist groups in the Middle East conflict in recent years has complicated an already difficult problem. As one Lebanese official, who asked not to be named, pointed out, Iran is like an octopus with its tentacles touching every aspect of the many problems plaguing the Middle East today -- not least of them, Lebanon.
Explosive, because many observers and chroniclers of Middle East policy fear at the moment that President Barack Obama's administration will be unable to revive the Middle East peace talks. Some worry that the "natural" reaction could well be another large-scale regional war.
Such a conflict easily could be precipitated by an Israeli attack on Iran, or for that matter by Hezbollah activity along Israel's northern border.
At a conference in Washington, D.C., last week, several Middle East specialists, among them current and former U.S. diplomats and observers, agreed that rising extremism -- on both sides of the conflict -- and lack of progress in the peace talks are changing the face of the Middle East conflict. What used to be purely a real estate problem between Israel and the Palestinians has evolved into a frightening religious war with each side believing their God (who happens to be the same) allows them to kill each other in His name.
It has taken Iran 30 years to begin to export its revolution successfully, but it is now making headway in the region. While the Iranians might have found natural allies in their Lebanese co-religionists in Hezbollah, they also are forming alliances with Sunni groups, as is the case in Gaza with Hamas and in Lebanon, particularly in the north, around the port city of Tripoli and in the dozen or so Palestinian refugee camps scattered around Lebanon. Once under the control of the Palestine Liberation Organization, the camps turned into mini-fortresses where the Lebanese authority was prevented from entering.
With the departure of the Palestine Liberation Organization and the expansion of al-Qaida and its subsidiaries, the Palestinian camps became a natural haven for anyone seeking to escape from the law.
Close cooperation has been established between Iran and Sunni jihadist groups now settled in the Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon, turning Lebanon into a microcosm of the many problems affecting the region today, and which have become inseparable.
Solving Lebanon's internal dispute between Hezbollah, which remains the only Lebanese group outside the country's security forces to be allowed to carry weapons, and the pro-democracy March 14 Movement is now unlikely to be solved independently of a generalized regional solution.
Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah already has stated that once the question of the south is resolved, there is still Jerusalem to liberate. Of course, this could just be rhetoric, but then again ... ?
In other words, there can be no resolution to the Lebanese internal question of Hezbollah's weapons until a peace agreement between Israel and Syria is reached AND a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians is also reached.
Rendering the situation in Lebanon all the more volatile is that all these problems have become intricately interwoven and in many instances, Lebanon finds itself caught in the middle.
Now all the focus is set on the country's June 7 parliamentary elections. At stake is the very idea, the very notion of democracy taking hold. Much is riding on the outcome of this election, in which the pro-democracy March 14 Movement, friendly to the United States and Western Europe, is worried that the pro-Syrian, pro-Iranian axis could use the bullet to influence the ballot.
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(Claude Salhani is editor of the Middle East Times.)
