MANAMA, Bahrain, Dec. 15 (UPI) -- Speaking at a conference on security in the Gulf region, U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates was highly upbeat on the future of Iraq, downright depressing on Iran and realistic regarding Afghanistan.
Gates offered a highly optimistic vision of Iraq when he addressed the opening session of the fifth Manama Dialogue conference in the capital of Bahrain Saturday. While the secretary's speech was generally well received, his vision of the country's future presented a point of controversy.
Some of Gates's critics called his description of today's Iraq overly simplistic and overly optimistic, and said the American chief of the Pentagon painted an unrealistically rosy picture of the current security situation.
"This is the dawn of a new era," said Gates, who added that "much has changed in the last year." Gates said Iraq was "on the road to recovery."
Meanwhile another massive car bomb exploded over the weekend in the northern Iraqi city of Kirkuk, killing 55 people.
A former Iraqi defense minister, however, disagreed with Gates's assessment of conditions, saying that "terrible chaos would follow the American withdrawal."
Saadoun al-Dulaimi told this reporter he believed mayhem and chaos would engulf Iraq "15 minutes after American troops pull out of the country."
Dulaimi, a Sunni from Anbar province, is described as a secular moderate who earned his doctorate degree in social psychology from Keele University in the United Kingdom. He left Iraq during the eight-year war that Saddam Hussein fought with Iran and was condemned to death in absentia.
Interestingly, the Baghdad-based Center for Research and Strategic Studies, which Dulaimi established in 2003 upon his return from exile, conducted the majority of the opinion polls in Iraq since the U.S.-led invasion of the country -- polls that have demonstrated mounting dissatisfaction with the continued occupation of Iraq by U.S. forces. Yet, although Dulaimi was highly critical of the role of the Coalition Provisional Authority, nevertheless he fears the departure of American forces will precipitate greater violence in the country.
Gates confirmed that in accordance with the recently signed Status of Forces Agreement reached between Iraq and the United States, all of the approximately 150,000 U.S. troops serving in Iraq would be withdrawn by 2011.
Addressing the leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council member nations (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates), Gates asked the GCC to help support democracy in Iraq. This, he said, was to everyone's strategic interest.
"I strongly encourage all nations who have not reinstated diplomatic relations with Iraq to do so," said the U.S. secretary of defense, who said he believes Iraq should be "considered for membership in the GCC.
Gates, however, warned that despite all the visible progress, the situation in the country remains precarious and that whatever was achieved could as easily be lost.
"The gains are still reversible," said Gates, adding that the "danger of al-Qaida and its ideology is all too real."
Gates then criticized Iran as a country that is "meddling in the affairs of other countries" and added that Iran's "every move is designed to create anxiety in the region." He accused the Islamic Republic of promoting violence and using "subnational actors" such as the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement, otherwise known as Hamas, and the Lebanese Hezbollah movement.
"Iran seeks to undermine legitimate governments by violent means," said the defense secretary, accusing Iran of seeking to develop nuclear weapons. "The last thing the world needs is a nuclear arms race in the Middle East," said Gates.
"It is a necessity to limit Iranian influence" in the Middle East, he added.
As for Afghanistan, said Gates, "there is no doubt that it is a tough fight in Afghanistan." Gates called the forces fighting the international coalition in Afghanistan "a ruthless and resilient enemy."
The solution, according to Gates, is to help Afghan national forces develop their own fighting machine, which he said would be "everyone's ticket out of Afghanistan." However, concluded Gates, "We have to recognize that we are going to be in Afghanistan for a very long time."
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(Claude Salhani is editor of the Middle East Times.)
