"Colombia: Making Military Progress Pay Off" says that over the last several years Colombia has been making progress fighting against the militant Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC. But the recent March bombing raid targeting Raul Reyes, FARC's second-in-command, on the Ecuador side of the border has resulted in a dangerous deterioration of relations with Ecuador and Venezuela, the Crisis Group reported.

Any gains Colombian President Alvaro Uribe has achieved militarily must be combined with a political strategy to reduce the risk of a regional crisis. Officials say a political strategy pursuing a swap of imprisoned insurgents for hostages in FARC captivity needs to include ways to gain political ground on the FARC and have international and regional backing.

Crisis Group analysts say one way to achieve support for a hostages-for-prisoners swap with the FARC could be by offering an internationally monitored demilitarized zone to the insurgents for 45 days among other measures.

"Solving the hostage issue in Colombia and constructively engaging its neighbors are crucial for the region's stability," Markus Schultze-Kraft, Crisis Group Latin America program director, said in a statement. "The March attack on the FARC camp in Ecuador triggered the most serious political crisis in the Andean region in many years; it needs to be overcome if a breakthrough in ending Colombia's armed conflict is to be achieved."