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You are here:  Home / Emerging Threats / Outside View: Lebanon crisis not over yet

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Outside View: Lebanon crisis not over yet

By MARIA APPAKOVA, UPI Outside View Commentator
Published: Dec. 6, 2007 at 10:34 AM
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MOSCOW, Dec. 6 (UPI) -- After two months of intense debate, Lebanon's Christian community has finally made a fence-straddling presidential nomination. It is too early, however, to expect an end to the current political crisis even if parliament approves the candidate.

Gen. Michel Suleiman, the candidate in question, faces a legal obstacle on his road to the presidency: Under Article 49 of the Lebanese constitution, public servants can run for the presidency no earlier than two years after resignation. At first glance a minor constitutional amendment may seem enough to settle that, but, as the general is likely to find, things are not so simple.

Meanwhile, the Lebanese parliament, which must approve any presidential nomination, has postponed its vote five times since September as no nominee could be found to satisfy both the pro-Western majority in parliament and the opposition, backed by Syria and Iran. President Emile Lahoud's term expired Nov. 23, and there was no way to put off the crucial vote any longer. Yet another compromise must now be made for the constitutional amendments the situation requires.

Gen. Michel Aoun, a prominent Opposition Leader, does not think such a compromise will be possible unless the parliamentary majority accepts certain provisos. In particular, the opposition demands that the presidential term be reduced to two years. This would mean the next election would closely follow the parliamentary poll in 2009. The opposition also insists on holding power of veto in a government led by a prime minister from outside the ruling coalition.

This goes far beyond any procedural controversy concerning Suleiman's nomination. The political tug of war over the presidency began long before the presidential race formally started two months ago. The big question underlying these developments concerns the external powers vying to determine Lebanon's future.

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