Russia, China, India still ready to fight major wars

WASHINGTON, May 29 (UPI) -- Israeli military historian Martin Van Creveld in "The Transformation of War" popularized the view that large-scale conventional military operations have become outmoded and inconceivable.

Versions of this idea are held across the political spectrum in the United States, from liberal Democrats who believe, along with Europeans, that economic aid and diplomacy are far more important than raw military power, to neoconservatives who believe that high-tech, precision weapon, state-of-the-art communications technology means the Pentagon can cut 30 tons off the weight of its Main Battle Tanks.

Another view, shared by liberals, neo-conservatives and small-government free-traders, is that large production runs on expensive ground weapons like artillery, Main Battle Tanks or the U.S. Army's HIMARS multiple-launch rocket system are completely unnecessary.

But the armed forces commanders and procurement chiefs of the armies of Russia, India and China don't agree. They have been investing in all those things big time since the 21st century began.

India in December 2007 closed a deal with Russia to buy 347 more T-90S Main Battle Tanks in addition to the 310 it purchased in 2001.

The potential enemy the Indian army would have to face is quite clear: It would be its traditional enemy Pakistan, whose future looks increasingly unpredictable and unstable, given the growth of extreme Islamist elements in popularity and political credibility, the assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, the consequent fall of Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, and the dramatic advances that the Islamist extremist Taliban movement has made in northern Pakistan so far this year.

Russia certainly does not factor as a likely enemy of India in any foreseeable scenario. The two great nations have no areas of significant strategic conflict in the foreseeable future, and their alliance, transcending their vastly different political systems and political cultures, has now endured for more than 40 years. Russia remains India's primary supplier of major land, sea and air war weapons systems. And India continues to invest heavily in upgrading its conventional military forces, as does China.

India's relations with the United States have warmed dramatically over the past decade, and that process has continued steadily under both Republican and Democratic presidents in Washington and under the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress-United Progressive Alliance-led coalition governments in New Delhi, so the process enjoys bipartisan blessings on both sides.

Nevertheless, the energy and resources the Indians are investing in building up their conventional political power should serve notice that India will not be content to follow U.S. wishes on a wide range of security issues in South Asia but will be determined to have the power to act independently on its own.

Most strikingly, although diplomatic and even strategic relations remain stable and even good between Russia, India and China, all three nations are investing big in conventional land forces. None of them appear to see any of the others as realistic enemies in the foreseeable future, but the weapons buildups allow each of those three nations to project their power effectively against smaller and weaker neighbors and, in the cases of China and India, to project their power to protect crucial import sea lanes that bring resources from unfriendly countries ranging from the Middle East to Africa and, in the case of China, even as far as Latin America.

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Part 4: Why major powers are still ready to fight small wars in the 21st century