Russians bet on Dems' passion for arms control

WASHINGTON, Dec. 19 (UPI) -- Why have Russia's diplomats done a dramatic U-turn on their relations with the United States? Within the past week a Russian deputy foreign minister has signaled a willingness to negotiate seriously with Washington about creating a new treaty to replace the START I Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, which runs out in December 2009.

Also last weekend, legendary former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, now in his 80s, visited Moscow and is believed to have discussed the possibility of reopening strategic arms treaty negotiations between the governments of U.S. President-elect Barack Obama after he takes office on Jan. 20 and the Russian government of President Dmitry Medvedev.

There are solid grounds for this Russian willingness to test the waters with the incoming Obama administration, but causes for caution, too.

Obama made clear repeatedly during his successful 11-month campaign for the presidency, from the Iowa caucuses last January, that he is highly skeptical about the value of building a ballistic missile defense base in Poland, with an accompanying radar tracking facility in the neighboring Czech Republic, to protect the United States and Western Europe from the threat of some future nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missiles that might be fired by Iran.

This kind of talk is welcome news to Russian policymakers. Although the proposed BMD bases in Central Europe are not targeted at any Russian threat, the Russians are convinced they are. Their suspicion of U.S. motives has been fueled by the outgoing Bush administration's drive to include the former Soviet republics of Ukraine and Georgia in the U.S.-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Indeed, even as Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov was signaling a willingness to close the deal with the United States over a START successor treaty within the next year, he also made clear that building those bases would be a deal-breaker for any agreement to succeed START.

Russian policymakers appear to be banking on the traditional passion of Democratic Party think tank intellectuals and policymakers for arms control agreements. START I has been the greatest cornerstone of the world of managed nuclear rivalry and deterrence since it was signed in 1991. The Democratic foreign policy establishment has always opposed the Bush administration's willingness to ignore arms control treaties or let them run out, and they also have opposed what the Dems regarded as the unilateralist go-it-alone approach of Bush policymakers.

Respected Russian political commentator Dmitry Kosyrev of RIA Novosti sounded an optimistic note for the strategic nuclear talks when he wrote Dec. 15, "It is clear that Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev will hold summits in any event. The two leaders will have to replace the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty -- START I -- which expires on Dec. 5 of the next year."

However, Kosyrev also soberly noted the current extremely bad state of U.S.-Russian relations. "Russia and America do not keep in touch in the world arena, if we do not count mutual verbal accusations which have no consequences. They are less in contact than they were during the Soviet times," he wrote.

It would seem that from this low base, there is nowhere for U.S.-Russian strategic relations to go in the new Obama administration except to improve. However, this may not be the case.

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(Part 3: Why U.S.-Russian strategic relations may stay bad under Obama)