Russian general gives new warning to Georgia

WASHINGTON, Aug. 25 (UPI) -- Expect more military flare-ups in the former Soviet republic of Georgia soon, despite the French-brokered cease-fire that took effect last week.

One of Russia's most senior generals claimed Friday the tiny Caucasus region state of 4.4 million people was preparing for renewed military action against its Russian-backed secessionist provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

"We have registered an increase in (Georgia's) reconnaissance activities and preparations for armed actions in the Georgian-South Ossetian conflict zone," three-star Col. Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn, deputy chief of the Russian military's general staff, told reporters in Moscow, RIA Novosti reported.

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili is still holding on to power, despite the lightning Russian drive that tore his country in two in early August, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has since demanded that Saakashvili must go. The Russians blame him for giving the Georgian army the go-ahead to invade the Russian-backed South Ossetia secessionist region on Aug. 7, prompting their own overwhelming counterattack the next day.

Therefore, Nogovitsyn's comments may indicate that Russia is preparing more military actions against the Georgians, using the argument that they may be necessary to protect Russian forces and the South Ossetian minority from Georgian attacks. Nogovitsyn also detailed Georgia's military buildup over the past three years. He said Georgia had boosted its tank force from 98 to 183, its armored combat vehicles from 83 to 134, and its number of effective artillery guns from 96 to 238. He said Georgia had also tripled its number of combat helicopters from three to nine.

"The number of peacekeepers in Abkhazia will be 2,142 people, and the number of peacekeepers in South Ossetia will be fixed at a later date," Nogovitsyn said.

Saakashvili has been determined to bring his small country into the U.S.-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and he has tried to build up Georgia's military capabilities to NATO standards. However, the Russian army swept Saakashvili's Georgian army aside during four days of fighting starting Aug. 8.

Georgian military casualties do not appear to have been very heavy and have been estimated by Western analysts at around 200 killed. However, the Georgian army dissolved as an effective force and proved unable to prevent the Russians from seizing even natural strong defensive positions in the mountainous and heavily forested little country.

Nogovitsyn also stated the Russians had created 18 peacekeeping positions already in South Ossetia and would erect another 18 in Abkhazia, "in order to avert looters and the transportation of arms and ammunition," RIA Novosti reported.

Russia may send Iskander missiles to Syria

Russia may boost its levels of weapons supplies to Syria, ignoring U.S. and Israeli concerns about Damascus' arms buildup.

Syrian President Bashar Assad paid a two-day visit to Russia last week and held talks with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev at the Russian Black Sea holiday center of Sochi, RIA Novosti reported Thursday.

"We are ready, and Dmitry Medvedev has confirmed this, to review a Syrian request to purchase new types of weapons," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said after the Medvedev-Assad mini-summit Thursday. "We will supply Syria primarily with weapons of a defensive nature that will not disturb the strategic balance in the region," he said.

RIA Novosti also cited an interview Assad gave the Moscow business newspaper Kommersant before he flew to Russia in which the Syrian president said: "Our position is we are ready to cooperate with Russia in any project that can strengthen its security. ... I think Russia really has to think of the response it will make when it finds itself closed in a circle."

Israeli officials are concerned that Syria may deploy Russian-made Iskander short-range quasi-ballistic missiles that could put all of Israel's main population centers within range of a surprise Syrian pre-emptive strike. The highly mobile, solid-fuel Iskander is capable of very rapid launching, virtually without warning. Its range and pinpoint accuracy would significantly increase Syria's capability to disrupt the mobilization procedures of the Israeli army in the event of war.

Assad told Kommersant he would be happy to accept the Iskanders if Russia offered them. "In principle, yes. We have not yet thought about it," he said.

Russia leaves NATO Baltic sea exercise

NATO joint exercises with Russia are toppling like tenpins in a bowling alley as the political repercussions of Moscow's invasion continue to spread.

The Russian navy announced Aug. 19 it was pulling out of a planned NATO-led naval exercise, Open Spirit 2008, that was to have been held in the Baltic Sea, RIA Novosti reported.

"In accordance with a decision taken by the Russian defense minister, the navy command has sent a notification via diplomatic channels to Lithuania that Baltic Fleet minesweepers will not take part in the Open Spirit 2008 international naval exercises in the Baltic Sea," Capt. 1st Rank Igor Dygalo was quoted as saying in the report.

U.S. President Bill Clinton launched the annual Open Spirit maneuvers back in 1997, and Russian warships have been participating in them since 2003. The maneuvers include searches for remaining munitions in the coastal regions of the three Baltic states of Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia -- all of which are now NATO members after being forcibly incorporated into the Soviet Union for a half-century.

Dygalo also said Russia would not let a U.S. Navy frigate visit a Russian port on the Kamchatka Peninsula in its Pacific Northeast from Sept. 5 to 9.

The Russian move followed the earlier British decision to withdraw from the Russia-NATO FRUKUS 2008 naval maneuvers that had been planned for Aug. 15 to 23 in the Sea of Japan.