Moqtada Sadr is neither down nor out in Iraq

WASHINGTON, Aug. 15 (UPI) -- As the neoconservatives in and around the Bush administration celebrate their imagined "victory" in Iraq that has yet to be won, they also proclaim the downfall of Moqtada Sadr, leader of the Mehdi Army militia and staunch opponent of the American occupation.

The headline of the Aug. 5 Wall Street Journal announced, "Radical Iraq Cleric in Retreat."

Well, maybe. But I think something else is happening to Sadr's Shiite paramilitary Mehdi Army, and it is a development of more than passing interest to those concerned with Fourth Generation War -- 4GW -- theory. I think Sadr is attempting to transition from leading a Fourth Generation War non-state entity, his Mehdi Army, to taking over the state of Iraq.

Like all changes of horses in midstream, the operation is delicate and can easily go awry. But Sadr so far seems to be making all the right moves. As The Wall Street Journal piece reports:

"Mr. Sadr began moving away from military operations when he ordered a cease-fire last August after (Mehdi) Army members clashed with government forces in the southern city of Karbala during a Shiite religious holiday. The fighting represented growing rivalry between Sadr followers and supporters of the main Shiite parties in government. ... In February Mr. Sadr extended the cease-fire for an additional six months."

If Sadr wants to rule Iraq, he cannot let himself and his organization be drawn into Shiite-on-Shiite violence. That would narrow his base when he needs to broaden it, and also would alienate the large majority of Iraqis who want order and security, not more war. Therefore the cease-fire that he concluded and its extension were wise.

The Wall Street Journal quotes from a new brochure issued by the Mehdi Army leadership that lays out Sadr's next move:

"(The) brochure … states that the (Mehdi) Army will now be guided by Shiite spirituality instead of anti-American militancy. The group will focus on education, religion and social justice. ... The brochure also states that it 'is not allowed to use arms at all.'"

Here, Sadr and his Mehdi Army are clearly taking a page out of Hezbollah's book. The strength of Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Shiite Party of God in southern Lebanon, comes from its effectiveness and honesty in delivering services to the community that the Lebanese state cannot provide.

The Wall Street Journal quotes Kenneth Pollack of the Brookings Institution, a large Washington think tank, as saying, "If the government fails to deliver on basic services and other needs of the Iraqis, Sadr followers could use their new organization to tell people they should look to them as the voices of change."

Precisely so. This is a key element of the struggle for legitimacy, which Sadr seems to understand will be decisive in determining who controls post-occupation Iraq.

Sadr has promised that small, well-trained elements of the Mehdi Army will continue to attack the Americans, but so far he has held off launching such attacks.

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(In Part 2: Spelling out Sadr's strategy over the next two years.)

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(William S. Lind, expressing his own personal opinion, is director for the Center for Cultural Conservatism for the Free Congress Foundation.)