Analysis: Threatening Taiwan -- Part 1

HONG KONG, July 24 (UPI) -- In terms of Taiwan's general strategic posture, the military machinery that the Kuomintang -- Nationalist Party -- inherited after winning the general election recently is, in fact, in a state of crisis. Taiwan's military buildup has been neglected for eight years, with military spending decreasing year by year except for a slight increase in 2008.

Over the past eight years the only major military equipment that Taiwan's government has acquired is the Keelung -- KIDD -- Class DDGs, or guided-missile destroyers. During the same eight years, however, China's People's Liberation Army has been acquiring third-generation fighters at a rate of two combat regiments each year -- one regiment of J-11 serial fighters and one regiment of J-10A fighters.

The People's Republic of China's navy also has been expanding its fleet, building or importing one 6,000-ton-plus large surface warship each year. It also has commissioned 052B, 052C, 051C and 956EM DDGs from 2001 to 2008.

In addition, the People's Liberation Army's T-99G and T-96G main battle tanks have undergone two major upgrades in the last eight years, a pace much faster than those of neighboring Japan and South Korea.

China's weapons of mass destruction include new cruise missiles and new-generation DF-21C SSMs -- surface-to-surface missiles -- that have been constantly added to its stockpiles. China's supply of short-range SSMs also has been increasing at a rate of 50 to 100 missiles per year. Moreover, from 2001 to 2008 the People's Republic of China's navy has commissioned four more SSN submarines and SSBN ballistic missile submarines.

In 2000 the military budget of the People's Republic of China was only $14.9 billion, whereas Taiwan's military spending was approximately $8.2 billion. By 2008, however, the military spending of the People's Republic of China had jumped to a dramatic $58.7 billion, while Taiwan's military budget remained around $10.9 billion, about 3 percent of the country's gross domestic product.

Of course, there is no such issue as implicit military spending in Taiwan's defense budget, whereas the actual military spending of the People's Republic of China is at least two times the official figure published by the Chinese government in Beijing.

This means that Taiwan's current military budget is only one-tenth of the total military spending of the People's Republic of China.

Just eight years ago U.S. President George W. Bush promised to sell Taiwan eight submarines. Unfortunately, eight years later the project is still only on paper. In contrast, the navy of the People's Republic of China procured eight Kilo 636M SS submarines, all of which are now in service.

Moreover, during the same eight years the People's Republic of China also has been expanding its underwater fleet at a rate of 1.5 039A class and "Yuan" class submarines each year.

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(In Part 2: The political and strategic implications of China's well-financed naval and missile buildup.)

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(Andrei Chang is editor in chief of Kanwa Defense Review Monthly, registered in Toronto.)