BMD deadlock -- Part 2

MOSCOW, June 13 (UPI) -- There is one contradiction in the rhetoric of Russian military leaders. For more than two years, they have been saying that Russia's strategic interests will be threatened if the United States deploys missile defense elements in Europe or elsewhere.

Until recently, they emphasized that Russia would make an asymmetric response to the U.S. plans by consolidating and upgrading its nuclear missile potential. Even if old, it is still reliable and well-tested.

But Lt. Gen. Yevgeny Buzhinsky, deputy chief of the Russian Defense Ministry's main department of international cooperation, said in late May, on the eve of summer vacations: "We are thinking about asymmetric measures, but I cannot specify them. We are in the army, and we think in terms of technical potentialities in order to minimize our losses."

This is strange, because strategic nuclear weapons had been mentioned as an alternative to missile defense by the president, the defense minister and the chief of the General Staff. Now something seems to have changed.

It is becoming clear that even 100 missile interceptors in Poland could not threaten hundreds of Russian missiles, not to mention 10. The United States is not going to wage a nuclear war. However, conventional arms or precision weapons based on multi-echelon space vehicles are another matter.

It is space-based missile defense, now being developed by the United States, that will give it limitless opportunities to conduct comprehensive surveillance and deal strikes at huge territories in no time at all.

The Russian general is absolutely right to talk about technical potentialities. The problem is that, for the time being at least, we do not have them. We cannot parry a massive attack by precision missiles and bombs unless we develop a powerful combined system to protect ourselves against missiles and space-based weapons -- air and space defense.

Earlier this year Russian Air Force Commander Col. Gen. Alexander Zelin admitted that "air and space defense elements are in critical condition." It is not even clear today under which command the future air and space defense system should be placed. The situation with weapons is no better.

The S-400 Triumph is the only missile system that can counter an air or space attack. But it is very far from a real triumph. It is not even deployed in several positioning areas. For the time being, only one missile defense regiment, deployed in Elektrostal, just east of Moscow, has received it.

To sum up, Russia will not be able to protect its major administrative and industrial centers against an attack from the air or space. This is a source of concern for Russia's political and military leaders. American missile defense is yet another irritant.

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(Andrei Kislyakov is a political commentator for RIA Novosti. This article is reprinted by permission of RIA Novosti. The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.)

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