Outside View: Russia-China row -- Part 2

MOSCOW, June 3 (UPI) -- There are several reasons for the recent problems in Russian-Chinese military technical cooperation. One was Russia's failure to deliver on a $1.5 billion order for 34 Il-76MD Candid transport and landing aircraft and four Il-78 Midas flying tankers.

The contract initially had been placed with the TAPO plant in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, which proved to be in no condition to fulfill it. Large numbers of staff had deserted the company while it was idle, and its equipment either had been plundered or become obsolete. The contract was then moved to Ulyanovsk, which was not ready to build so many planes at such short notice either.

Most importantly, China no longer wants to buy what Russia has to offer, preferring to import weapons of its choice together with licenses and technology for their production, which Moscow is not willing to provide. China has not signed a copyright agreement with Russia and is producing the J-11B aircraft, effectively a carbon copy of the Su-27SK Flanker. Beijing even exports the plane to Pakistan without getting a permit from Sukhoi, which holds the patent for the Su planes, or paying royalties to it.

China is interested in Russian armor and artillery, including the Nona-SVK and Vena self-propelled gun, the 152-mm Msta-S howitzer, the T-90S main battle tank, the Smerch multiple-launch rocket system, the BTR-80 and BTR-90 armored personnel carriers. It has also expressed interest in multi-role helicopters, such as the Mi-28N Havoc and Ka-50 Black Shark.

But Moscow is in no hurry to sign the agreement, for several reasons. Although China is friendly now, nobody knows how it will behave tomorrow, when new leaders replace the Old Guard who were brought up to respect the Soviet Union and Russia. The United States is openly worried over China's growing military might. Is Russia supplying weapons to an army that may turn against it tomorrow?

That is pure speculation, of course, but theories have become reality more than once before in history.

Such caution is not pleasant for China, which has suggested that Russia think about the future of bilateral military technical cooperation. Bilateral military ties would have been rolled back to zero very quickly, if not for a European ban on the supply of weapons and combat control systems to China.

But moratoriums are lifted, sooner or later. Economic expediency, financial gain, and rivalry with other arms producers and suppliers may eventually force Europe to resume cooperation with China, leaving Russia empty-handed.

Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev and Chinese leader Hu Jintao probably discussed military technical cooperation in Beijing, and we may soon learn what they have decided. Visits to China by Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov and Chief of the General Staff Yury Baluyevsky are still on the ministry's agenda this year.

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(Nikita Petrov writes on military affairs for RIA Novosti. This article is reprinted in part by RIA Novosti. The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.)

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(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)