Outside View: Georgia civil war -- Part 1

MOSCOW, May 14 (UPI) -- Analysts are actively debating the possible outcomes of an armed conflict between Georgia and the self-proclaimed republic of Abkhazia, which seceded from Georgia in 1992.

Without looking into the most pessimistic scenarios envisioning a nuclear conflict between Russia and NATO, let's try to predict the possible outcomes of a Georgian-Abkhazian conflict.

In late 2007 the Georgian armed forces had about 33,000 officers and men, including a 22,000-strong army that comprised five brigades and eight detached battalions.

These units had more than 200 tanks, including 40 T-55 and 165 T-72 main battle tanks that currently are being overhauled. The Georgian army also had 180 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, as well as 20 other armored vehicles, 120 artillery pieces with a caliber of 122 to 152 mm, 40 multiple-launch rocket systems and 180 mortars, including 60 120-mm mortars and 120 mortars with an 82-mm caliber.

Although the Georgian air force has 10 to 12 Sukhoi Su-25 Frogfoot ground-attack jets, only four or five of them are operational. It also has 15 Czech-made L-29 and L-39 combat trainers, which can be converted into lightweight attack planes and 30 helicopters, including 8 Mi-24 Hind helicopter gunships.

The Georgian navy has 10 motorboats of different types, including two guided-missile boats. One of them is similar to the French-made Le Combatant and carries four Exocet anti-ship missiles. And the Soviet-made Project 206-MR boat has two P-15M missiles.

However, their combat readiness is in doubt.

The Georgian military faces a 10,000-strong Abkhazian self-defense force wielding 60 tanks, including 40 T-72 main battle tanks, and 85 artillery pieces and mortars, including several dozen with a 122 to 152 mm caliber and 116 armored vehicles of different types.

The Abkhazian army also has numerous anti-tank weapons, ranging from RPG-7 rocket launchers to Konkurs-M anti-tank guided missiles.

Additionally, the breakaway republic has one or two Sukhoi Su-24 Fencer tactical bombers, one MiG-23 fighter, five combat-ready Su-25 ground-attack jets, three to four L-39 combat trainers and three to four helicopters. Although some sources allege that Abkhazia has one or two Sukhoi Su-27 Flanker fighters, this seems unlikely.

The Abkhazian navy has more than 20 motorboats armed with machine guns and small-caliber cannons.

The experience of the 1992-1993 Georgian-Abkhazian conflict shows that even small units can resist superior enemy forces in mountainous areas for a long time. Consequently, the outcome of any hypothetical conflict would depend on the aggressors' level of military training and the influence of third parties, primarily Russian units from the Collective Commonwealth of Independent States Peacekeeping Force.

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(Ilya Kramnik is a military commentator for RIA Novosti. This article is reprinted by permission of RIA Novosti. The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.)

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(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)