Defense Focus: C21 sub threat -- Part 1

WASHINGTON, April 24 (UPI) -- An important article in the current issue of National Defense magazine echoes the warnings we have been giving in these columns over the past three years about the growing tactical threat of China's diesel-electric submarines to U.S. surface warships in the Western Pacific Ocean.

The article by Grace V. Jean in the April 2008 issue of National Defense notes that diesel submarines are proliferating rapidly in navies around the world. They may, indeed, be the most popular type of warship being constructed. As we have noted in previous columns, Russia, China, Germany and France all now make excellent combat diesel submarines. Russia and France are particularly aggressive in exporting them to boost their arms sales revenues.

Israel's survivable second strike nuclear deterrent is carried on three German Dolphin class diesel submarines, or U-boats, with two more being constructed. India has followed Israel's example and has bought French Scorpion diesel-electric subs to carry its own survivable second strike deterrent that, like Israel's, is carried on submarine-launched cruise missiles.

The U.S. Navy, in the all-nuclear submarine fleet tradition of Adm. Hyman Rickover, decades ago pressured major U.S. shipbuilders, led by General Dynamics Electric Boat and Northrop Grumman, to scrap any capacity to build diesel submarines, putting all their faith in big, long-duration nuclear-powered subs.

As we have often noted in these columns, diesel subs can't begin to compare with nuclear ones for range, endurance or the ability to project power at any time anywhere around the world. But they don't have to. Not only are they effective in coastal waters, but developments in diesel-electric propulsion technology over the past 10 years allow them to project their operational range well into the ocean.

Of course, diesel-powered U.S. and German submarines in World War II could already do this and proved crucially important strategic weapons. Britain was at risk of being starved into submission by even the small, surface-attacking force of relatively primitive German U-boats in the Battle of the Atlantic from 1940 to 1943. And Japan was in fact isolated, starved and strategically defeated by the much larger and more efficient submarines of the U.S. Navy in the Pacific Theater.

The U.S. Navy still refuses to make any provision to reconstruct the capabilities to build diesel submarines in U.S. shipyards, and it has also refused to buy cheap, off-the-shelf subs from Germany and France.

Britain alone has continued to follow the U.S. lead by investing in smaller numbers of much more expensive and larger, long-range nuclear submarines. Back in the 1982 Falklands war, the British nuclear submarine HMS Conqueror sank the Argentine heavy cruiser General Belgrano, killing most of the around 1,000 crew on board. That action effectively neutralized the entire Argentine surface fleet, leaving the way clear for Britain's Task Force South to liberate the Falkland Islands -- known to the Argentineans as the Malvinas.

But apart from the British, most other navies in the world have followed the Russian and Chinese fashion of investing big-time in modern diesel subs rather than hankering after nuclear ones.

Jean cited Richard Dorn of AMI International as estimating that currently there are about 377 diesel subs in service around the world operated by 39 nations. Jean also noted a trend we have tracked over the past two years in these columns of Russia's remarkable success in selling Kilo-class subs. China was already an enthusiastic customer. Now Venezuela and Indonesia have ordered them, too. Jean tallies 30 sales of Russian Kilos around the world so far with five more going to Venezuela by 2020, six to Indonesia, and China having bought in all 12 of them.

Jean also notes that China is already operating 10 Song-class diesel submarines. In November 2006 a Song-class submarine, as we have previously noted in these columns, surfaced within sight of the U.S. aircraft carrier Kitty Hawk. Had that occurred during wartime, the Kitty Hawk would have been dead.

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Next: Chinese neo-wolf pack tactics against U.S. carrier groups.