Outside View: Korean tensions -- Part 2

MOSCOW, April 3 (UPI) -- Having outlined the principles of inter-Korean relations the other day, the new South Korean president, Lee Myung-bak, a former businessman, actually renounced the agreements concluded in Pyongyang by his predecessor Roh Moo-hyun and North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, and by the prime ministers of both countries last year.

They had agreed to create a zone of peace and cooperation in the Yellow Sea, but the recently inaugurated President Lee did not even mention this idea during his meeting with the government. Pyongyang could not fail to notice this.

The recent launches were made in the Yellow Sea, which has been a seat of tensions between the two Korean states for many years. After the war of 1950-1953, the Americans unilaterally delimitated the waters by a line, which is not recognized by North Korea. Incidents with warships were frequent there in the past because of this dispute.

This may become an insoluble problem. A spokesman for the North Korean navy said on the radio on March 28 that if South Korean warships appear in North Korean waters, Pyongyang will not simply watch these provocations, but will have to stop them immediately.

Like the missile launches, this is also a warning to the South Korean leaders who have renounced rapprochement with North Korea. But the biggest sign of mistrust, which was virtually unnoticed by the world community, was the expulsion of 11 Seoul government employees from a joint industrial zone near the North Korean city of Keson. Since 2005 they worked at the coordinating bureau of the South and North Exchanges and Cooperation, South Korea's first official mission in North Korea.

This serious diplomatic conflict took place after South Korea announced on March 19 that the expansion of the joint industrial zone would be impossible without the resolution of the nuclear problem on the Korean peninsula. This contradicts the agreements of last year's inter-Korean summit.

The Seoul-based news agency Renhap reported that South Korean experts are worried that this scandal will only aggravate the settlement of the nuclear problem. Seoul is not likely to change its course in the near future, and the situation on the Korean peninsula may become even more uncertain in connection with the presidential elections in the United States this year.

Nobody can predict what policy the new U.S. administration will pursue toward North Korea. Pyongyang does not need to rush anywhere. If the six-way process stops, North Korea will again resume its nuclear program and will test ballistic rather than anti-ship missiles. In this case, everything will have to be started from scratch.

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(Ivan Zakharchenko is a foreign news commentator for RIA Novosti. This article is reprinted by permission of RIA Novosti. The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.)

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(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)