Outside View: Arms freeze threat -- Part 2

MOSCOW, March 17 (UPI) -- Ecuador has expelled Colombian diplomats in response to the raid that killed Raul Reyes, the second in command of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia.

However, Ecuador hastened to add that this should not affect bilateral economic relations. Besides, it has sent only 3,200 troops to the Colombian border -- enough to make headlines, but not to start a war.

Venezuela, on the other hand, which was not affected by the raid, has not only expelled Colombian diplomats but also ordered masses of troops and 10 tank battalions to its border with Colombia. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez pledged war if Colombia tried a similar foray into Venezuelan territory.

By the way, the Venezuelans are well armed, including with Russian weapons.

Chavez is unlikely to start a war, but if he does, Colombia will find allies against him. Washington has long been watching Chavez, also waiting for a chance to deliver a strike at the drug guerrillas.

Latin Americans have fire in their veins, and Chavez is an extravagant man. But he is not a fool. He hopes that a demonstration of force will win him kudos with left-wing forces, without the inherent risks of actually fighting a war -- especially if the United States were to join in. Besides, public opinion in Venezuela is not as monolithic as it may seem, as shown by the referendum on controversial constitutional reforms in December 2007, which Chavez lost.

If Venezuela goes to war, Russia will not hesitate to freeze its arms supplies -- the Kremlin does not need more problems with the West. Veteran Cuban leader Fidel Castro is on his deathbed and can only offer Chavez words of support. The situation in Cuba is too unstable to send troops to a foreign war. The most it could do is send 100 military advisers.

Ecuador, where the situation is never stable and whose presidents seldom, if ever, complete their terms, does not need a war either. The current Ecuadorian president has too many enemies to start such a war.

So Ecuador and Colombia will most probably kiss and make up, and Venezuela will eventually calm down.

Besides, jungle fighting is exhausting. Tanks sink into bogs, aircraft disappear without a trace, and troops end up where they never intended when taking to the road two weeks before. Neither side has a chance of quick victory, but all of them will face political disaster if they unleash a war.

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(Pyotr Romanov is a political correspondent for RIA Novosti. This article is reprinted by permission of RIA Novosti. The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.)

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(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)