BMD Watch: Israel plans Arrow-3

WASHINGTON, Oct. 23 (UPI) -- Hard-charging Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak is determined to add a new tier to Israel’s already formidable ballistic missile defense system: He has given the go-ahead to develop a new anti-missile interceptor to operate at higher levels against possible incoming, nuclear-capable ballistic missiles from nations such as Iran.

The proposed new missile has been named the Arrow-3, and it will operate at higher altitudes than Israel’s existing Arrow-2s and lower-altitude U.S.-built Patriot PAC-3s, Defense News reported Monday.

Defense News quoted an Israeli general, speaking on condition of anonymity, as saying the goal for the Arrow-3 would be to improve the probability of kill-interceptions of incoming intermediate-range ballistic missiles, or IRBMs, from its current estimated 80 percent to “the very high 90s" percent range.

Even more than other countries facing a ballistic missile threat, Israel desperately needs BMD systems that can prevent any nuclear-armed missile getting through because some two-thirds of the country's 6 million Jews are concentrated in a single 60-mile strip 5 to 15 miles deep from Ashdod in the south to Hadera in the north. Virtually all the country's booming IT and high-tech sectors and 80 percent of its national infrastructure are in that single potential thermonuclear kill zone.

Defense News said that Israeli planners stressed they were happy with the double-tier protection that the currently deployed Patriot PAC-3s and Arrow-2s already provide against the existing threat posed primarily by Iran.

The paper cited Arieh Herzog, director of the Israel Missile Defense Organization, as saying that the latest Block 3 and new Block 4 upgrades of the Arrow-2 had sufficiently good performance parameters to deal with what the report described as current and projected near-term threats.

However, Defense News said that the Israelis were also concerned that eventually their enemies might have enough missiles and expertise in rapidly deploying and launching them to fire a salvo of them simultaneously, stretching the current system to the limits of its capabilities. That was why they deemed it crucial to develop and deploy an entire third tier of ABMs capable of intercepting and destroying incoming attacks at higher altitudes and earlier in their flight trajectories, Herzog told the paper.

The report said the Israelis opted for a bold new Arrow-3 program after studying, but finally rejecting, the prospects for simply developing new block upgrades of the existing Arrow-2, or purchasing the U.S. Theater High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, which is launched from aircraft.

"What we discovered is that THAAD is an excellent system, and I'm sure whoever uses THAAD will derive great benefit from it. But in our specific case, it cannot fit our requirements," Herzog told Defense News.

Herzog said Israeli BMD experts were already at work trying to persuade the U.S. Missile Defense Agency of the viability of a new Arrow-3 system, the report said.

The MDA has been strongly backing THAAD and is optimistic about its recent technological development. And its support for a rival Arrow-3 could be crucial as the new system, like Israel’s previous Arrow-2s, can only be built with major financial support and technological and industrial cooperation from the United States.

Herzog told the paper he hoped the details of annual funding and data-sharing agreements could be worked out in less than three months by the end of this year. But he said it would be at least five years and “several hundred million dollars" before the first Arrow-3s could be actively deployed.

While the Arrow-3 would be a new system, it would still employ and integrate the existing Arrow-2s radar, battle management and other systems, the report said.

Israel Aerospace Industries, which builds the Arrow-2, would be the prime contractor on the new program, Herzog said.

Defense News said Boeing Missile Defense Systems, which already makes almost 40 percent of Arrow-2s working with IAI, would perform the same role in producing the Arrow-3.

The 80-percent solution

As noted above, Israeli defense planners are confident they already have the capability to inflict an 80-percent kill rate on incoming ballistic missile attacks, most likely from Iran. And a former U.S. Air Force civilian chief has told them on a visit that this might be enough.

Former U.S. Secretary of the Air Force James Roche told the Israeli newspaper Haaretz in an interview published Monday that he was in Israel to attend the first conference of the new Israel Missile Defense Association.

Roche served under controversial Bush administration Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and, like his boss, is a strong enthusiast for the broad spectrum development and deployment of BMD systems.

The creation of the IMDA and the appearance of high-powered speakers such as Roche at its first conference in Tel Aviv testify to current Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak’s driving determination to make BMD development the nation's top strategic priority.

The conference was also organized by the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs. Many top-level current and former officials and officers of the Israeli Ministry of Defense and the Israel Defense Forces are attending it.