Defense Focus: Lebed's ghost -- Part 2

WASHINGTON, Oct. 3 (UPI) -- The shopping list of major weapons that Russia has sold to China in recent years is massive and at first sight appears impressive.

As Russian analyst Nikita Petrov wrote in a recent commentary, it included no less than four Project-956-E Sovremenny-class destroyers equipped with the formidable 3M-80E Moskit -- NATO code-name SS-N-22 Sunburn.

Sovremennys and Sunburns are not just chicken liver: As we have noted in previous UPI analyses, the Moskit is explicitly designed to kill American nuclear-powered super-aircraft carriers. The deterrent effect of having four Sovremenny warships equipped with them would be to force U.S. carrier groups to operate from far farther out in the Western Pacific Ocean in the event of any conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan.

However, selling Sovremennys and Moskits to China certainly did not affect the strategic balance of forces between Russia and China. The two nations are primarily military land powers. Their immediate direct joint border was much reduced when the former Soviet republics of Central Asia became independent following the disintegration of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991.

Nor did the other prestigious items that Russia has sold to China in recent years. The Sukhoi Su-27 MKK is a formidable fighter aircraft, but it is far from being the best Russia has to offer, especially with the MiG-29 and the new Sukhoi Su-35 Flanker being around.

The Tor-M1 surface-to-air missile is believed to be good -- but Russia has already moved on to its new S-400 anti-aircraft and anti-missile system that it claims has twice the range and operational altitude as the U.S. Patriot PAC-3. Similarly, the two Project 636 Amur class submarines with Club C anti-ship missiles are a major boost to the Chinese navy, but the Chinese navy poses no significant potential challenge to Russia.

However, as Petrov wrote in his analysis, the Chinese want to buy a lot more than that from Moscow. Petrov wrote that the Chinese shopping list includes "Shmei -- or Bumblebee -- rocket infantry flamethrowers, 120mm Nona-SVK and Vena self-propelled guns, 152mm Msta-S self-propelled artillery systems, 300mm Smerch -- Tornado -- multiple-launch rocket systems -- MLRSs, T-90S main battle tanks, BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles, BTR-80 armored personnel carriers -- APCs, Mil Mi-28 Havoc and Kamov Ka-50 Hokum 'Black Shark' attack helicopters, various types of three dimensional radars, naval Shtil-1 R-29RM -- SS-N-23 -- surface-to-air missiles on vertical launchers, as well as electronic counter-measures -- ECM systems, Ka-27 and Helix Ka-28 ship-borne helicopters, know-how for manufacturing fourth-generation and fifth-generation aircraft engines, highly alloyed steels and other materials."

That is quite a shopping list: If the Russians were to approve all of it, Russia's often embattled military-industrial complex would be booming for a decade to come.

Nor are all these weapons ones that are secret or so cutting edge that Russia does not dare compromise its security by selling them to other nations. As Petrov noted, "Russia has no misgivings about supplying MLRSs, large caliber artillery pieces and many other weapons to India."

Petrov, in fact, was quite explicit about the reason for Russia's continuing refusal to sell any of its top-line weapons systems to China. He said many Russian security officials were "afraid" that such sales would "impair the defense capability of the Russian armed forces, primarily its units stationed in the Far East and the Baikal region."

This remarkable statement confirms that the warnings of the late Gen. Alexander Lebed a decade ago about the long-term demographic and strategic threat China might pose to Russia's vast Asiatic territories are still remembered in Moscow. But it also reveals many other things -- some of them surprising -- about Russia's arms-sales policy and its relations with China.

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(Next: Russian strength and fears -- and Chinese weakness)