Analysis: Arab ministers on peace mission

JERUSALEM, July 25 (UPI) -- The Egyptian and Jordanian foreign ministers were in Israel Wednesday to promote the Arab peace initiative. They found their hosts ready to accept a Palestinian state but were told to leave details to bilateral Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.

It was the first time in the history of the Arab-Israeli dispute that ministers came to Israel on behalf of the Arab League, an organization that has always been very hostile to the Jewish state.

The shift probably reflects a changed atmosphere among moderate Arab regimes that fear the rise of Islamic fundamentalism threatens their stability. They are concerned about the emergence of Iran that is radical, and perhaps with a nuclear bomb it might have in a few years. They want to resole the Israeli-Palestinian dispute that is an irritant.

Israel, too, has changed. It no longer has a strong appetite for occupied territories. It unilaterally left southern Lebanon in 2000, Gaza in 2005, and Prime Minister Ehud Olmert was elected last year after promising a further disengagement. The peace initiative was initially presented in 2002, and was renewed at the last Arab summit meeting in Riyadh in March.

It offers Israel peace and normal relations with all Arab states if Israel withdraws from all the territories occupied since the 1967 war, agrees to the establishment of an independent sovereign Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with East Jerusalem as its capital, and reaches an agreement on how to solve the refugee issue. It is an offer of "historic magnitude," Jordanian Foreign Minister Abd-al-Ilah al-Khatib announced.

The Arab peace initiative has been endorsed by the vast majority of the 56 states that belong to the Organization of the Islamic Conference and "twenty-two Arab countries (that) stand behind this collective offer," he said.

The proposal does, however, pose problems for Israel. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni hinted at one of the problems that talks of "a just solution" to the refugee issue that should be "agreed upon" in accordance with U.N. Resolution 194. That resolution talks of allowing refugees to return.

"There should be two nations states with each one (being) a solution for its own people," Livni said. In other words: If the refugees do return, they should go to the future Palestinian state, not their old homes inside Israel proper. Those homes, and sometimes villages, no longer exist.

Nevertheless, the overall atmosphere the Israelis sought to create was warm and welcoming.

"We ought to encourage Egypt and Jordan's goodwill, receive them nicely, tell them they are wanted guests," said President Shimon Peres. Then, during negotiations, each side behaves as one does during negotiations and insists on its positions, he added.

Livni seemed to follow that advice. Except for the indirect allusion to the refugee issue, she declined to tell reporters what items in that initiative Israel does oppose.

"If there is a mistake we can commit, today, it is to comb the clauses of that initiative and look for the differences. The wise thing is to see the opportunity that presented itself and try to take advantage of it," she said.

In line with that attitude, Peres declared, "All Israel, the right and the left, are united in the wish for peace and understands that at the end of the conflict there will exist two states for two peoples." Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Livni spoke in the same vein.

The Egyptian foreign minister, Ahmed Abul-Gheit, told reporters that what is needed now is "to re-launch negotiations, between both of them, with our help."

Livni maintained there was no need to push Israel. "Stagnation is not an option," she said.

Israel and the Palestinians should discuss the issues on a bilateral track, "and the Arab world can support the Palestinians in taking the right steps ... to make an agreement feasible," she added. Livni did not elaborate, but Arab moderates could help Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who seeks an agreement, against the Islamic Hamas that opposes it.

Abul-Gheit and al-Khatib are expected to report to the Arab foreign ministers Monday. They discussed with Olmert the steps to keep the momentum, and Olmert hinted he would like more Arab states to openly join the move.

"If other states such as Saudi Arabia and the Emirates would be willing to help, we shall welcome it," he said, according to Haaretz.

It would demonstrate his policy is enhancing peace.

However, experts doubted an agreement could be near. Abbas has been pressing, for years, for final settlement talks that would end with the establishment of a Palestinian state. Olmert seemed to be in no hurry.

Haaretz speculated Olmert was offering Abbas an "agreement on principles" for a settlement -- that a Palestinian state would control 90 percent of the West Bank (in addition to Gaza), land would be swapped so that Israel could keep its big settlement blocs, a tunnel would link Gaza and the West Bank and a way would be found to allow the Palestinians to declare Jerusalem their capital even though Israel would hold on to the Old City and the Mount of Olives.

Some analysts nevertheless doubted a bilateral track, without foreign involvement, would produce an agreement.

Former foreign minister Professor Shlomo Ben Ami said at a briefing organized by InfoMishkenot in Jerusalem there was no way Israelis and Palestinians could sit in a civil manner around a negotiating table. They cannot reconcile to the other side's demands, he said.