Analysis: All quiet on the Mideast front?

WASHINGTON, July 23 (UPI) -- All is quiet on the Middle Eastern front -- for the time being.

A little over a year after the war between Israel and the Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah ended almost as abruptly as it had started, there are rumblings of renewed violence possibly breaking out in the Middle East.

The next few months could be "fateful" for Syria, according to the country's president, Bashar Assad, as quoted by the usually very well informed Internet blog, SyriaComment.com.

Indeed, the region was rife with rumors over the past few months of probable outbreak of hostilities between Syria and Israel over the Golan Heights. And rumors of a possible attack by the United States on Iran's nuclear facilities have never been entirely off the radar screens. Some circles in Washington are calling for action before the Islamic republic becomes a nuclear power, making the possibility of such a raid far more complex.

Reports of a third U.S. carrier task force -- with the USS Nimitz -- said to be heading for the Gulf region this week now places a total of about 300 carrier-based fighter jets within striking range of Iran.

"The situation is likely to get worse before it gets better," writes Joshua Landis, co-director of the Center for Peace Studies at the University of Oklahoma, publisher of the SyriaComment blog, who is currently visiting Syria. The next few months "will be a waiting game and the hatches have all been battened down," writes Landis.

Damascus and Tehran are bound by a mutual defense pact and an attack on Iran by the United States is likely to bring Syria into the fray. An Iranian opposition figure reports that an important arms deal was struck between Iran and Syria following the visit of Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to Damascus last week in which Iran will fund Syria's military about $1 billion towards arms procurement.

Writing in the London-based newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat, Ali Reza Nourizadeh reports that the defense agreement between the two countries allows Iran to keep MiG-31E fighter aircrafts based in Syria with Syrian markings, but at Iran's disposal.

Syria hopes to use the money to renew its aging fighter jets, Soviet-era tanks and anti-ship missiles, and to develop its nuclear and chemical weapons research programs.

Assad also reportedly promised Ahmadinejad that he would cease his pursuit of peace talks with Israel if Iran would back Syrian interests in Lebanon. The strengthening of ties between Syria and Iran is seen as a serious threat in Israel. The Jerusalem Post reports that Strategic Affairs Minister Avigdor Lieberman is calling for a national unity government to protect the Jewish state from the growing "axis of evil."

Report of the Syrian-Iranian agreement and Washington's saber rattling has not done much to lessen the tension in the region. Even recent overtures towards Syria from France, which is reasserting itself as a key player in the region's politics, has kept relations between Damascus and the West tense. Middle East experts remain pessimistic regarding the region's immediate future, despite a recent call by U.S. President George W. Bush for a regional conference to relaunch the stalled Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.

Breaking the long isolation imposed on Damascus by Washington and Paris since the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, French President Nicolas Sarkozy dispatched an envoy to Damascus and Iran, to reassert France's role in the region.

Although French Foreign Ministry sources say that the visit by Jean-Claude Cousseran to Damascus and Tehran will not diminish Paris's support of Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's government, the move, nevertheless, is a break from the previous policy of former President Jacques Chirac to keep Syria isolated.

Chirac and Hariri were close friends and the killing of the former Lebanese leader pushed Chirac to freeze relations with Damascus. While President Sarkozy made it known that he intends to continue supporting the government of Prime Minister Siniora, however, he is not burdened by the personal relationship his predecessor entertained with Hariri.

Nevertheless, Naharnet, the Internet edition of the influential Lebanese daily newspaper An-Nahar, cites unnamed French Foreign Ministry sources as saying that the French envoy to Damascus was under instructions from the Elysee Palace, to inform Syria of the need to quit betting on external powers to make a "deal" at Lebanon's expense.

The possibility of a deal being struck between Damascus and Washington and/or Paris to the detriment of the Lebanese continues to worry many Lebanese who fear seeing Syria reassert itself militarily in Lebanon.

Still according to the Lebanese newspaper, French sources confirmed that Cousseran conveyed a "harsh warning" to Syria's Vice President Farouk Sharaa and Foreign Minister Walid Muallem concerning the need to deal "positively" with French and Arab efforts aimed at building stability in Lebanon.

The sources stressed that "Cousseran was 'very honest and clear' with the Syrian leadership," and that he made it known that this was Syria's "last chance" toward changing its behavior in Lebanon.

The Lebanese paper said that the French envoy "informed Syrian officials that such meetings will not take place in the future unless France sees 'tangible' changes in Syria's behavior in Lebanon and the region."

Yes, the Middle Eastern front may be quiet. But is it the proverbial calm before the storm?

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(E-mail: Claude@upi.com)