Analysis: Border dispute strands Gazans

TEL AVIV, Israel, July 13 (UPI) -- Thousands of Gazans have been stranded in Egypt for over a month, unable to go home because of an Israeli-Palestinian argument over the crossing.

Families returning from visits abroad and students seeking to go home for the summer vacation have been staying in mosques in the northern Sinai town of El Arish, with Bedouin tribesmen, and at the Rafah crossing.

No one knows for sure how many they are. An Israeli official told United Press International the Egyptians had provided the names of 2,000 people. Egyptian sources estimated 4,000 to 5,000 people were stranded, and the Palestinian Center for Human Rights put the figure at over 6,000.

Crossing has usually been precarious. Israel borders Gaza to the north and east; its navy prevents access from the west and destroyed the airport at the outset of the intifada. This leaves one crossing to the outside world, at Rafah.

The Israelis who left Gaza in 2005 suspected Palestinian militants would cross and smuggle arms. They wanted some measure of control, and the agreement provided they could monitor movement from a liaison office on their side of the border, at Kerem Shalom. Palestinian, Israeli and European Union representatives would be there and get visual and data feeds from the crossing. The Israelis could voice objections when suspected people cross and delay them for a few hours. The EU monitors, in blue berets and vests, were also at the crossing to observe and train the Palestinian officials, not give orders.

One element in that agreement gave Israel extra leverage. "If one of the parties refuses to be in the liaison office at Kerem Shalom the border cannot be open," said the spokeswoman for the EU's Border Assistance Mission, Maria Telleria.

Israel, then, could not prevent someone from entering Gaza, but it could close the border and often did.

Some 400,000 people had crossed by April 2007, but border closures became the rule after Hamas militants kidnapped Cpl. Gilad Shalit. Last month Hamas seized control of Gaza and the picture that clinched the closure showed masked gunmen sitting at the border terminals' computers.

It became "impossible to fulfill all the provisions of the mandate," said EU BAM's commander, Lt. Gen. Pietro Pistolese. Israel, the United States and the European Union consider Hamas a terrorist organization.

Israelis have often complained that militants cross, that goods are smuggled and that women who looked pregnant were actually carrying bundles of cash for Hamas. The Israelis all along wanted a different system whereby they would be the first to check travelers. It worked when Israel controlled the area. Even when the airport functioned, passengers were taken to the Israeli terminal first.

To provide for a similar system they constructed a border terminal at Kerem Shalom, beside the point where the Egyptian Israeli and Gazan borders meet. The Palestinians would have nothing of it. They wanted to control their crossing, not be subject to Israeli consent. The new crossing remained closed, except for cargo from Egypt.

But now that Rafah was closed and all those travelers were stuck, Israel offered to let them through Kerem Shalom.

That would serve its interests. It would resolve the problem of all those people who have been waiting at least since June 9. Israel could check everybody, search their luggage and prevent money from going to Hamas.

The Egyptians, who have been eager to resolve the problem peacefully, supported the move as a temporary measure. It could benefit Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, too. He could have his men at the crossing and underline the fact that thanks to him, and not Hamas, Palestinians can travel.

Hamas rejected the idea and the Al Ahram weekly quoted Ismail Haniyeh, who heads the Hamas-led government, as insisting, "The border must remain Palestinian-Egyptian only."

Israel's idea was bad for Hamas. Experience shows that temporary arrangements become very permanent, so pressure to open Rafah could subside; Israel could arrest and gather intelligence from militants returning from training in Iran and elsewhere, and imagine Haniyeh subjected to Israeli searches as he crosses.

So Hamas warned against using that crossing and true to form backed it by firing mortar bombs at Kerem Shalom.

The attacks were inaccurate since the crossing is in an open sand dune area exposed to Israeli snipers and drones. Militants had to fire from afar, could not aim well and usually missed. But the message was threatening enough.

The situation is "stuck," confirmed a spokesman for Israel's coordinator of government activities in the territories, Shlomo Dror.

It could lead to riots. Immediately after Israel withdrew from Gaza, Palestinians rushed to the border and breached it. Fatah men blew it open, again, last month when they fled Hamas' militants. There is a history of violent eruptions there.

Last week a Muslim cleric in nearby Khan Yunes called for seizing the crossing, the Haaretz newspaper reported. The Egyptians put 750 border policemen on alert and some nights clamped curfews over the area.

The Palestinian authorities could change the border regime if they want to do so, Dror noted. Israel's leverage there is based on an economic agreement whereby Israel, the West Bank and Gaza belong to one customs envelope.

The Palestinians can open their border to Egypt and risk an Israeli decision to exclude Gaza from that customs envelope.

However, that would increase the separation between Gaza and the West Bank. Israel could refuse to let them use its port of Ashdod and force them to trade through Egypt's Port Said that is more expensive. Part of Gaza's economy is based on trade with Israel, and that too could come to an end. Certainly the trade would be more expensive if customs were levied at the crossing.

So there is no solution in sight; EU BAM is planning to send monitors home and a new class of refugees seems to emerge.