Turkey: Kirkuk referendum risky

WASHINGTON, July 12 (UPI) -- A Turkish government official warned that a referendum on the status of Kirkuk in Iraq could cause new conflict.

The Iraqi constitution calls for a referendum of the population on whether Kirkuk will be annexed to the semi-autonomous Kurdish region in northern Iraq or remain outside of it. If it is annexed, there will be seriously divisive questions about the revenues from the rich oil and gas fields there.

"This kind of eventuality is going to bring about new tensions... in the area. That has to be avoided at any cost," said Turkish Ambassador to the United States Nabi Sensoy. "We feel a domino effect will take hold in the area. ... We fear it might really usher in a period" of ethnic violence.

Kirkuk was once heavily Turkoman and Kurdish. Under Saddam Hussein's regime it was "Arabized" by seizing homes and filling them with Iraqi Arabs.

Kurdish parties are moving large numbers of Kurds back to the city in advance of the referendum. Sensoy said the Turkish government sees this as an effort to influence the outcome of the referendum.

"We know the demographic equilibrium in that city has been upset in last three to four years," he said. "The result will be a foregone conclusion. It is not going to be a fair thing."

A U.S. military source told UPI Wednesday the referendum is likely to be delayed two to five years because the conditions to hold the referendum have not yet been met.