Analysis: Arab-Americans oppose Iraq war

WASHINGTON, June 29 (UPI) -- Arab-American voters are abandoning the Republican Party in large numbers and only 10 percent of them want the United States to stay in Iraq.

In the lead-up to the 2008 presidential elections, only 14 percent of Arab-Americans intend to vote Republican. Just seven years ago, 38 percent of Arab-Americans identified themselves as Republicans.

Only one in 10 Arab-Americans wish for U.S. troops to stay in Iraq until they achieve "victory." Almost a third would prefer they leave immediately and more than half think they should withdraw gradually, according to a new poll released by James Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute Thursday.

"There is a near collapse among Arab-American voters" of support for the GOP, Zogby said

Iraq is the most prominent issue on the Arab-American political agenda, the poll revealed. Some 61 percent of Arab-Americans said the Iraq war would be the deciding factor in their presidential vote. A little less than a third identified the economy as the most important issue, followed by immigration and healthcare -- at 13 percent each.

Today, 39 percent of Arab-Americans consider themselves Democrats; 26 percent think of themselves as Republicans and 28 percent are independents. When asked who they intend to vote for in next year's presidential elections 36 percent said they intended to vote Democrat; 14 percent Republican; 1 percent independent and a whopping 46 percent said they were undecided and would judge each candidate separately.

Yet, the GOP isn't the only party losing votes; the Democratic Party has also lost a considerable number. A year ago, 43 percent of Arab Americans considered themselves Democrats, but today the figure is only 39 percent, according to the poll.

Zogby attributed the Republican losses to "frustration with President Bush's policies setting in." His annual poll has witnessed a systematic shift away from the GOP during the president's tenure.

When Bush took office on Jan. 20, 2001, the Democratic Party held a two percent lead over the GOP among Arab-American voters. By 2002 the difference had grown to eight percent in favor of the Dems and in 2004 and 2006 it was 11 percent. Today there are 13 percent more Arab-American Democrats than Republicans.

Bush's personal approval rating with Arab-Americans is 18 percent, well below the national average which lies somewhere between 32 percent, according to a CNN poll, and 26 percent, according to a Newsweek one. The president's disapproval rating among Arab-Americans is 79 percent, according to the Zogby poll.

Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., is the early front-runner for Arab-Americans in the upcoming presidential elections; he is their favorite Democratic candidate with 37 percent. Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., is a close second with 33 percent, followed by former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards with 12 percent.

Among Republicans, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani leads the pack with 32 percent, followed by Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., with 28 percent and former Gov. Mitt Romney, R-Mass., with 16 percent. But according to Zogby, these ratings might change drastically before the elections take place because at this stage people pick candidates by name recognition and are not necessarily aware of the politician's agenda.

The poll, which has been released annually since 1992, also found that non-U.S.-born Arab-Americans have ceased to be swing-voters, their traditional role, and like their U.S.-born counterparts are now loyal to one party.

More than 500 people, 75 percent of whom were U.S.-born, were polled for this survey. They could only support candidates who had formally entered the presidential race by May 22, 2007.