Analysis: Afghanistan's opium dilemma

WASHINGTON, June 11 (UPI) -- Rebuilding Afghanistan is harder than defeating the Taliban, a former NATO commander said. Dutch Maj. Gen. Ton van Loon, who handed over command of the International Security and Assistance Force in the south of Afghanistan in May, said that the Taliban has no longer any coherent structure.

With the Taliban as good as gone -- though there is still "fighting to be done," according to van Loon -- ISAF can focus its attention on the reconstruction of the country. A crucial role in this process is the eradication of opium poppy, van Loon said. Selling opium buys warlords weapons and leads to governmental destabilization, insecurity and more poppy.

Ending this vicious cycle is hard, he said, "because opium is brilliantly suited for Afghanistan. Unlike other products, it does not require storage facilities. People can keep it under their beds."

Afghanistan remains the world's largest opium poppy producer. According to the U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime, the country produced more than 13,420 pounds of opium --more than 90 percent of the world's heroin supply -- in 2006, almost 50 percent more than the year before. With prices not decreasing as much as one would have expected, growing poppy is by far more lucrative than any other agricultural product.

Legalizing poppy, as suggested by some lawmakers, economists and scientists, is no option, said Thomas Schweich, U.S. coordinator for Afghan counter-narcotics and justice reform. Though it has been done in Turkey and India, while Australia grows special poppies to make painkillers, Schweich said that it cannot work in a country where poppy is used to fund insurgents and warlords.

This year's harvest and the five years of supply van Loon said is in stock means Afghan authorities and ISAF will be fighting poppy until at least 2012. That is, if they succeed in eradicating the entire Afghan production; if not, poppy will haunt Afghanistan for even longer, leading to other problems, such as police corruption.

"You cannot always see it," van Loon said, "but assume it is there, so you cannot be surprised."

Tribally unbalanced, underpaid and distrusted by the people, police sometimes cause more problems than they solve, he said. "If the police return, we would rather have the Taliban," was an expression van Loon said he heard among some Afghans.

Last month the Council of the European Union adopted a joint action on the EU Police Mission in Afghanistan. The mission -- EUPOL Afghanistan -- will begin June 15 and will stay for three years to establish a civilian structure under Afghan ownership. It consists of some 160 police, law enforcement and justice experts.

"I think that the EU has decided to play as big a role as possible, unfortunately not as big as I would have liked," EU Special Representative for Afghanistan Francesc Vendrell said at a news conference launching the police training mission. In comparison, the EU police force in the U.N.-administered province of Kosovo -- roughly 60 times smaller than Afghanistan -- is 10 times larger.

When meeting with NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer last month, U.S. President Bush urged NATO allies to commit more troops and other resources; something van Loon would welcome, he said. "The south can always use more troops."

Britain will deploy 1,400 more troops to Afghanistan, bringing its total to 7,700. They will mainly be based in the southern province of Helmand, where, according to a UNODC report, 42 percent of all Afghan poppy is grown.

Without a proper Afghan law enforcement force in the near future, it will be up to ISAF to police the country; that means a long-term commitment from the 37 nations who deliver the 37,000 troops. "We have to follow an Afghan pace," van Loon said.

For German Defense Minister Franz Josef Jung, withdrawal is not an option, as long as Afghan security forces are not strong enough to cope on their own, he said. The presence of the 3,200 German troops became a discussion point in German Parliament after three German soldiers died last month, increasing doubts among the public about the mission.

France does not intend to keep its approximately 1,000 soldiers in Afghanistan "forever," French Defense Minister Herve Morin said when he met with his U.S. counterpart, Robert M. Gates, earlier this month. Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper said Canada has "roughly the same position as France." Canada has about 2,500 troops in the country. Dutch Parliament decides this summer whether its 1,500 soldiers' mission will be extended after 2008.

Van Loon said he could not say anything about timetables or benchmarks. "Look at Bosnia," he said, "NATO has been there for 15 years and that mission was a lot easier."