Analysis: Arab peace initiative pushes on

TEL AVIV, Israel, May 10 (UPI) -- Arab attempts to advance a peace initiative with Israel are moving into higher gear with government-to-government contacts and moves to whip up public Israeli support.

Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are leading the effort, and an Arab League liaison group is scheduled to meet European Union foreign ministers next Monday. "Coordination between the two groups is necessary if we want to reach tangible and practical results," Jordan's King Abdullah II said in an interview published in the Egyptian newspaper, Al-Aharm.

On May 15, Abdullah is set to host Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert at a gathering of Nobel Prize laureates in Petra. In the coming weeks Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit and Jordan's Abd-al-Ilah al-Khatib will come to Israel to discuss the league's initiative.

Jordan and Egypt have full diplomatic relations with Israel, but it will be the first time that an official Arab League delegation visits the Jewish state.

Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni was in Cairo Thursday, met with President Hosni Mubarak and Abul-Gheit and discussed the visit.

The second Arab track seems to be aimed at Israeli public opinion. Jordan recently hosted Israel's acting president and Knesset Speaker Dalia Itzik as well as several Knesset members. Wednesday, Abdullah addressed some 30 Israel peace activists and opinion leaders invited to a dinner in Amman.

One of the invitees, Peace Now's Secretary-General Yariv Oppenheimer, told United Press International they were invited to help prepare a peace conference of some 200 Israelis, Palestinians and Jordanians, in Aqaba, next week.

The Arab League's initiative is based on a Saudi proposal made in 2002, endorsed at a summit meeting in Beirut and renewed, albeit with some amendments in March at the Arab League's summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The proposal offers Israel peace and normal relations with all Arab states if it withdraws to the pre-1967 war lines, agrees to the establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with East Jerusalem as its capital, and if it reaches an agreement on solving the refugee issue.

The Riyadh summit's final statement said: "The summit reiterated the adherence of all Arab countries to the Arab peace initiative ... to end the Arab Israeli conflict ... and bring about (a) fair and comprehensive peace."

The move comes as moderate Muslim-Sunni Arab regimes are concerned over the rise of radical powers, Iran's nuclear program, the widening rift with the Muslim Shiites and believe the Israeli-Palestinian dispute is a major irritant.

Thus Abdullah told Al Ahram, "A comprehensive and lasting resolution of the Palestinian issue is the key to resolving the other issues in the region."

He said, "The growing number of players is complicating the situation and threatens to expand the conflict. There is also growing extremism in the region."

Unless there is a comprehensive settlement, "The whole region will face a catastrophe that will not be confined to one country ... God forbid, it will lead to dark and painful outcomes."

Olmert has reacted positively to the Arab initiative, but there is no doubt he will reject some of its elements. He faces domestic pressure to resign following a scathing interim report that the Winograd Commission issued last week on the way he and his government managed the Second Lebanon War. So far Olmert weathered a mini-rebellion in his Kadima party, a non-confidence motion in the Knesset and a mass demonstration in Tel Aviv.

However, on May 28 his main coalition partner, the Labor Party, is scheduled to elect its chairman and the results of a public opinion poll, published Thursday, indicate that retired Rear Adm. Ami Ayalon is likely to win.

Ayalon said last week he would not join a government that Olmert heads. Olmert is now trying to cultivate new partners that would at least provide him with a safety net and deny the opposition the 61 Knesset votes necessary to topple his government. A new agenda, such as peace talks with the Arab League, could help him shift attention from last year's war to new hopes for peace and give some Israelis a reason to let him carry on.

The Israeli Foreign Ministry's spokesman, Mark Regev, noted Thursday Israel welcomes the Arab initiative, sees it as something positive and believes it "has the potential to move things forward."

"No one believes the Arab states can replace the Palestinians, but they can play an important role in strengthening Palestinian moderates," Regev said.

Israel is sure to reject some elements in the Arab initiative, such as the demand for a complete withdrawal also from ancient holy Jewish sites in East Jerusalem. Nor would it agree that the refugees return, because that would eventually leave the Jews in a minority.

"If the Arab initiative is 'Take it or leave it,' it would be a recipe for stagnation," said Regev. However, if it would enhance the dialogue "it can be an important element," he added.