Analysis: Blair defies Labor calls to quit

LONDON, Sept. 1 (UPI) -- British Prime Minister Tony Blair is facing a backlash from his own party after he rejected demands that he name his departure date at Labor's annual conference later this month.

Infuriated Labor parliamentarians lined up to urge Blair to reconsider, after he insisted it would be wrong to lay out an exit timetable either before or at the Manchester convention.

Blair has been under pressure to clarify his intentions since he announced before the 2005 election that it would be his last as leader. Since then his leadership has been the subject of constant speculation, which many Labor members of Parliament say is destabilizing the party and the country.

Labor critics say the prime minister needs to step down promptly to allow a successor to put their stamp on the party and rebuild public support before the next election, likely in 2009. Meanwhile, many of Blair's policies have caused consternation within the party, notably his decision to invade Iraq and, most recently, his apparent support for Israel in its campaign against Lebanon.

But a defiant Blair used an interview with the Times of London to head off demands for his resignation, maintaining he had already said enough to reassure the party he would ensure a stable and orderly transition of power.

He said he had done what no previous prime minister had done in announcing that he would not fight another election, while giving "ample time" for his successor. He stressed that before he became leader "we'd lost four elections in a row, now we've won three."

"I think I have said enough for anyone reasonable to know I will do my best for the country and the party to make sure that when I do depart it is done in a stable and sensible and orderly way, but, in the meantime, to get on with the job of prime minister."

Blair insisted it was not his leadership but the constant speculation of critics that was destabilizing the party. "I really think it is absurd for people who say we must stop this continual speculation about the leadership continuing to speculate about it. I'm not the one who keeps raising this issue. I think if it is speculation that people are worried about, there is a simple answer -- stop speculating."

He divided those calling for a departure timetable into three groups: "those who are worried about the polls, those who are worried about me going on and on; and those -- probably the largest part -- who don't simply want a change of leader but a change of direction."

Blair drew comparisons with the failures of the U.S. Democratic Party following the departure of former President Bill Clinton in 2000. He believes Labor must retain the centrist policies which brought it victory in the past three elections and not allow the return to its leftist roots that some sections of the party want.

"The perennial delusion of all political parties in government is that you have a moderate, progressive government that becomes unpopular for all sorts of reasons and people who want something more fundamentalist use that unpopularity to pull the party into a position where it simply can't win an election," he said.

But Labor critics point to the polls as evidence that the party remains in power not because of Blair, but despite him.

A recent ICM poll for the Guardian newspaper put support for the party at its lowest since 1987, when then Conservative Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher was in her heyday. Polling at just 31 percent, the party is trailing behind a resurgent Conservative Party on 40 percent, and is rapidly leaching support on the left to the anti-war Liberal Democrats, who oppose much of the government's foreign policy.

Meanwhile Blair's personal approval ratings have plummeted, hitting a low of just 26 percent following May local elections in which Labor suffered humiliating losses. That poll, carried out by YouGov for the Telegraph newspaper, earned him the title of the most unpopular Labor prime minister of modern times.

Blair acknowledged that the polls were "difficult for us at the moment," but insisted this was a natural byproduct of having been in government for ten years.

"Once you get into your tenth year of government, people are fed up, you disappoint people, you've got people impatient for change," he said. Rather than become obsessed by an internal debate, the party had to stand by its policies and have the confidence to see it through, he said.

But to critics, that position simply does not wash. Many believe that Blair's motivation for continuing in the job is derived from self-interest and a desire to secure a political legacy rather than the interests of the party. There are growing fears that Blair's refusal to step aside may cause the party to implode as the Conservatives did in the last days of Thatcher, with which commentators are already drawing parallels.

A coalition of former ministers and backbenchers led by ex-Work and Pensions Secretary Andrew Smith responded to Blair's comments by demanding he end the uncertainty.

Smith said Blair's defiance would cause "widespread concern amongst the public as well as amongst Labor party members."

"I would have thought it's clear to everyone that the debilitating uncertainty over the leadership can't go on -- it's bad for the country, bad for the government, bad for the Labor Party, and ultimately bad for Tony Blair himself."

But loyalists say that announcing his departure timetable would be tantamount to stepping down, as it would increase uncertainty within the government and civil service and leave him a lame-duck leader.

The danger for Blair is that if he does not bow out gracefully, he will be pushed. Rebellious Labor MPs have so far held off on calling for a leadership contest at the entreaties of Deputy Prime Minister John Prescott, who signaled earlier this year that Blair would make a statement about his departure date at the conference.

But faced with the prime minister's refusal to do so, MPs may well petition Labor's National Executive Committee to force his hand by opening a leadership race. If Blair wishes to preserve his legacy and secure an election win for Labor at the next election, it is this he must avoid.