Analysis: Lebanon's difficult dialogue

BEIRUT, Lebanon, Feb. 14 (UPI) -- Is political dialogue still possible in Lebanon? Will the Lebanese be able to achieve a new political consensus without interference once more by "outside forces"?

One year after the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri the country remains split between pro and anti-Syrian camps. The chasm was reinforced Tuesday when nearly one million Lebanese gathered in the "Freedom Square" in downtown Beirut, while the pro-Syrian forces stayed away.

Calls for revenge from the new anti-Syrian camp against Syrian President Bashar Assad and his Lebanese protégé President Emile Lahoud, whom many Lebanese blame for Hariri's killing, leaves little room for reconciliation with Syria.

"We came to say to the ruler of Damascus, the tyrant of Damascus (President Assad) and his followers and allies, we are not an illusionary majority and you are a rancorous criminal minority... We came to say that if forgetting is impossible, forgiveness is impossible, impossible, impossible," said Druze leader Walid Jumblatt.

Hariri's murder in a massive explosion that targeted his convoy on Feb. 14, 2005 was blamed on Syria and the so-called "Lebanese-Syrian security team" that ran Lebanon for almost 30 years.

Damascus has repeatedly refuted all accusations, although an international investigation committee hinted to the possible involvement of some of its security officials in the killing.

Although the investigation is not over yet, most of the Lebanese have reached their own conclusion.

Jumblatt, who once was an ally to Syria, shouted: "We want revenge from Lahoud and Bashar."

Addressing the Syrian president, he said: "You are the slave and we are the free people."

He rejected what he termed as the new "Syrian-Iranian axis" and lashed out at Hezbollah and pro-Syrian Palestinian factions, without naming them, for retaining their weapons and for taking the disputed border area of Shabaa farms as an excuse to continue the struggle with Israel.

Jumblatt was joined by other speakers, including Christian Lebanese Forces commander Samir Geagea and Hariri's son and political heir, Saad, in calling for the ouster of President Lahoud.

While Saad Hariri called for removing Syria's "symbol of hegemony in Lebanon from Baabda Palace" -- a reference to the seat of the president -- Geagea promised to recover the presidency "no matter how long it will take."

Using tough language against Syria, Lahoud and Hezbollah, the anti-Syrian camp hoped to strengthen the ranks of the "March 14" gathering. Last year about one million flag-waving Lebanese demanded the withdrawal of Syrian forces from Lebanon.

Although Syria pulled out its troops from Lebanon last April under intense international pressure, Lebanese anti-Syrian groups maintained that Damascus continued to interfere in Lebanese affairs and was behind a series of bombings and assassinations that targeted a politician and two journalists in Lebanon.

"The huge crowd that took part in today's gathering and the tough language used by the speakers against the Syrian regime and Lahoud aimed at reconfirming the strength of this (anti-Syria) front which was about to disintegrate lately," Sateh Noureddine, a political analyst, told United Press International.

"(The anti-Syria camp) has also presented its agenda for the next phase: the presidency, Hezbollah's weapons and refusing to reconcile with Syria."

Noureddine said the three topics appeared to be "the final conditions for dialogue" with the pro-Syrian camp, which includes the Shiite Hezbollah group and Amal movement as well as a new comer -- the Free Patriotic Movement of Christian former Army Commander Gen. Michel Aoun.

"This says that the Syrian regime is not to be a party at the negotiation table," he explained.

"Jumblatt's harsh comments are interpreted as telling the other camp: don't use the Syrian regime or (Hezbollah's) resistance weapons (to boost your position). Let's start with (removing) Lahoud and then we can discuss the issue of Hezbollah's arms and relations with Syria."

Last week, Hezbollah Secretary-General Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah and Aoun struck an alliance and presented a blueprint on how to restore normal relations with Syria, protect Lebanon from Israel's threats -- including the issue of Hezbollah's weapons -- and its anti-Israel resistance, as well as rebuilding the Lebanese state.

The document, which included the main issues of conflict among the Lebanese, could lay the groundwork for dialogue if accepted by their opponents.

While some argue that such a dialogue has become prohibitively hard to achieve with the clear prevailing division in the country, Noureddine believes it is still possible but would take some time.

"Every party is preparing its weapons for dialogue," he said.