TEL AVIV, Israel, Jan. 27 (UPI) -- Israel intends to follow a wait-and-see policy towards the Palestinian Authority in the wake of Hamas' victory in the Legislative Council elections.
The Islamic movement won 76 seats in the 132-member legislature in a victory that surprised the world -- as well as the militant Islamic movement itself. It seems as though Hamas is now wondering what to do and the Israeli government accordingly intends to keep a low profile and monitor Hamas's movements.
The idea is not only to see where Hamas is heading but also not to push President Mahmoud Abbas to resign.
Abbas, also known as Abu Mazen, has a record of quitting when the waters get rough. The elections were a devastating blow to his Fatah Party that won only 43 mandates. Trying to run a quasi-state with an adversary government and legislature is not something he would relish, according to knowledgeable observers.
Abbas genuinely wants a peace agreement with the Jewish state. "As far as Israel is concerned Abu Mazen is the last address. The Palestinian president that will follow him will be a Hamas man," wrote Yediot Aharonot correspondent Alex Fishman in an article that bore signs of having been written following a briefing with a high source in the Defense Ministry. He did not name his sources.
The Israelis intend to follow the wait and see policy for at least four to six weeks, Fishman wrote.
Two schools of thought seem to have developed following Wednesday's elections:
One is hawkish. It believes Hamas will stick to its anti-Israel charter, resume attacks, and therefore Israel should be tough with it from day one.
The Likud's leader, former Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, reflects this attitude. "An extreme Islamic state that seeks to destroy Israel and whose leaders' hands are soiled with Jewish blood...is emerging, " he warned.
Netanyahu dismissed suggestions Hamas might become more moderate in office. "That was said about the (Iranian) Ayatollahs when they seized power in Iran, and about the Taliban when it assumed control over Afghanistan. It did not happen there and it is not going to happen here," he argued.
Therefore, he warns, "Any pullback will bring the Qassam (rockets), the missiles, the Kalashnikov (guns) and the bombs closer to our homes." Netanyahu wants to move Israel's security barrier deeper into the West Bank.
One should not confuse Hamas's "Misleading and calming tactic" with its basic strategy. Its leaders' do not intend to abrogate their charter which calls for Israel's destruction, the Haaretz newspaper's Defense Editor, Zeev Schiff, wrote.
Israel's reaction must be "almost total," he advocated. It should "dry up" the crossings through which Gaza's imports and exports pass. It should not allow any movement between Gaza and the West Bank until Hamas publicly accepts the internationally devised roadmap for peace. That roadmap outlines steps towards the creation of an independent Palestinian state that would live in peace with, not instead of, Israel.
Israel can afford to be much tougher because the Gazans depend on it for their electricity, water and even milk, Schiff added.
The other school of thought supposes Hamas could, or is bound to become more pragmatic.
"Hamas must form a coalition with reality," former Prime Minister Shimon Peres told Israel Radio. "It cannot form a coalition with ... demagoguery. Tomorrow morning it has to send 150,000 checks to 150,000 civil servants and these checks must be covered." The Palestinian Authority needs foreign aid and Israeli transfers to meet its bills.
Avi Dichter who headed the Shabak security service and is now one of the leaders of Kadima, Ariel Sharon's new party, Friday said he knew Hamas'leaders well.
"We should all remember they were not born with a desire to kill Israelis," Dichter wrote. They developed this desire when they realized their terror attacks increased their popularity.
Israel's retaliation that included targeted killings of Hamas' leaders, "Led them to seek another way to continue and strengthen their public position without endangering their lives. Finally the people elected them in a democratic way," Dichter continued.
Israel should therefore follow developments patiently, he advocated.
Some generals in active service also encouraged restraint. The outgoing Palestinian government is in touch with Israel, and any hostile step Israel takes now would be deemed an act of revenge. That would be a mistake, this argument ran.
Following top-level consultations, the Prime Minister's Office Thursday issued a statement demanding the Palestinian Authority and Abu Mazen fulfill their promises to "Disarm Hamas and the other terrorist organizations."
In practice, "There are no new directives," a defense source told United Press International on condition of anonymity.
Israel will continue to let businessmen and some 10,000 laborers from Gaza and the West Bank into its territory to work. At the moment Israel intends to continue delivering the tax money and customs it collects on the Palestinian government's behalf, the source said.
According to Fishman, any military activity within the Palestinian territory will require higher-level authorization. There would probably be no more targeted killings for the time being, unless they are designed to prevent imminent Palestinian attacks. The restraint is designed to deny Palestinian militants an excuse to end the period of calm, Fishman wrote.
It seems, however, to be also a response to Hamas' leaders latest offers to maintain calm if Israel does.
There are no illusions about progress towards peace or implementing the roadmap.
"Israel will not negotiate with a Palestinian administration if its members include an armed terrorist organization that calls for the destruction of the State of Israel," Thursday's government statement said.
The implication was that if Hamas recognizes Israel and ceases terror, it could be a partner.
Several Hamas leaders have expressed readiness for a long-term cease-fire. For Israel that would be good enough, the defense source said.
