LONDON, Dec. 30 (UPI) -- It was supposed to be the year of making poverty history, of revolutionizing global trade and modernizing the economy of the enlarged European Union. But 2005 will more likely be remembered as the year when terror came to the streets of London, when Britain's economic bubble began to burst, and the rise of youthful Conservative leader David Cameron generated more excitement than Labor's historic yet unconvincing election win.
The days of July 6 and 7 can be viewed as a microcosm of this tumultuous year; the heady euphoria of London's successful Olympic bid and the hope of a ground-breaking deal on third world poverty, instantly submerged beneath the horror of fatal bombings on the capital's transport network.
As holders of the Group of Eight and European Union presidencies, Britain pinned its colors firmly to the mast of debt relief, free trade and increased aid for the world's poorest nations as 2005 dawned.
Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown urged world leaders to agree 100 percent debt relief for the most impoverished nations, to increase development aid to 0.7 percent of gross domestic product and to eradicate market-distorting export subsidies and import tariffs which prevented developing nations from benefiting from global trade.
"This year of the U.N. special summit -- and of Britain's G8 presidency -- is our chance to reverse the fortunes of a continent and to help transform the lives of millions," he told world leaders in June.
But in the end, the progress was only modest. G8 leaders agreed to double aid to $50 billion and to extend the principle of debt relief to 18 poor nations, but the deal was widely criticized by anti-poverty campaigners.
At the U.N. September summit, gloomy figures emerged when the "Millennium Development Goals" were reviewed.
On present progress, it would be 2150, not the target of 2015 before the number of people living in poverty would be halved.
Looking back over the year, the head of the U.N. Millennium Campaign, Salil Shetty, said: "In aid, we have gone a long way. In debt, a small step has been taken. But in trade we are nowhere. There is still a long way to go."
But for most Britons, the half-heartedness of deals on global poverty and the second G8 aim of tackling climate change was soon forgotten, as four suicide bombs ripped through the heart of the capital on the second day of the G8 summit in Scotland.
Fifty-two people died and hundreds more were injured when four bombs were detonated on three underground trains and a bus on July 7. The shock was compounded when it emerged that those responsible were young British men, three of Pakistani and one of Jamaican origin, sparking a wave of self-examination across Britain's majority and minority ethnic communities.
The atrocities also firmly entrenched the Iraq war as a disaster in the minds of the British public. Never enthusiastic supporters of the invasion, a substantial majority of Britons cited Prime Minister Tony Blair's decision to go to war as a contributing factor to the emergence of home-grown terrorism.
Blair, however, dismissed such suggestions roundly, and embarked upon a controversial mission to clamp down on extremism through tough legislation. The measures drew protest from civil liberties groups, Muslim leaders, members of the legal profession and parliamentarians, leading to the Labor government's first parliamentary defeat since its election in 1997. More defeats on the Terrorism Bill are almost guaranteed in the new year.
Blair's position is looking shakier, as members of his own party line up to rebel against his proposed reforms in education and health. He has been attacked by opposition parliamentarians for agreeing to give up part of Britain's EU rebate, though he managed to salvage what had been widely panned as a lackluster EU presidency by securing a deal on the EU budget for 2007-13. This included an agreement to consider reforming EU finances midway in the next budgetary period, though this was far from the fundamental spending reform Blair had set his sights on.
Despite delivering a historic third consecutive election win for Labor, the prime minister's leadership -- and in particular his decision to invade Iraq -- was widely blamed for the loss of more than 100 parliamentary seats. All three major political parties came out of the election with a sense of disappointment, as both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats failed to capitalize in any significant way on the widespread public dissatisfaction with the Labor government.
If there was a winner in the 2005 general election, it was Brown. After originally ousting him as head of Labor's election campaign during ongoing tensions, Blair was forced to beg for his help as it became apparent his handling of the economy might be the only thing stemming the tide of deserting Labor voters. In return for a guarantee that he would remain at the Treasury for a third term, Brown duly maintained a united front with Blair, and toured the country flaunting his economic success for all to see. Those pre-election months may come to be remembered as the start of the transfer of power from the prime minister to his anointed successor.
However undermining Brown's own position was the downturn in Britain's economic fortunes, the extent of which became apparent in the latter months of the year. Brown was forced to slash his growth forecasts and change the dates of the economic cycle to meet his own spending rules, while house price growth fell 10 percent from 2004.
Independent commentators are predicting a continuing economic slowdown in the coming years, and the economic miracle of the Labor government's early years appears to be well and truly over. What impact this will have on Brown's own prospects as future leader remains to be seen.
A significant threat to Labor has emerged in the form of Cameron, the 39-year-old wunderkind whose rise to the top of the Conservative Party has captured the public imagination. Named Tory leader in early December, the fever surrounding his victory was described by some commentators as similar in magnitude to that of Labor's election win in 1997.
The fresh-faced and media-friendly Cameron, often described as the Tory Blair, has pledged to reinvent the Conservatives as a socially compassionate party in tune with modern Britain. His election saw the Conservatives overtake Labor in the polls for the first time in five years, and while he must still convince the public that he can match his words with actions, there is a prevailing sense that Britons are ready to be convinced. For the first time since 1997, a Conservative victory at the next election seems a distinct possibility.
As the new year approaches, the foremost question in the minds of most Britons is when Blair will finally step down as prime minister. If he suffers parliamentary defeats on his education and health proposals, many commentators say he could go in the spring, but with the Conservatives now offering to support the education reforms, that scenario is looking less likely.
With ministers eyeing a reduction in troop numbers in Iraq, the conflict could become far less of a divisive issue over the coming year. However if the security situation worsens and the reductions fail to materialize, Blair's position could be even less favorable.
Alongside the state of the economy and the burgeoning Conservative revival, these are key developments which could substantially impact the shape of British politics for years to come.
