New leader may alter German-Polish ties

KEHL AM RHEIN, Germany, Oct. 26 (UPI) -- Poland's new President Lech Kaczynski might be the face of a new era of Warsaw's foreign policy. In Berlin, experts are already fearful the stable German-Polish friendship will cool off.

"We should become prepared for a period of uneasy coexistence, which alternates between mistrust and cooperation," Kai-Olaf Lang, Poland expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, a Berlin-based think tank, Wednesday told United Press International in a telephone interview.

Kaczynski, of the conservative Law and Justice Party, won the office in a stand-off against Donald Tusk of the Civic Platform party to succeed former communist head of state Aleksander Kwasniewski.

In a bid to mobilize the rural vote, Kaczynski used anti-German rhetoric in his campaign, making political circles in Germany uneasy. While the president has less political influence than the country's prime minister, he is able to shape foreign policy, and Kaczynski in his campaign promised to do so.

That could spell discord for Berlin, which in recent years fostered close ties with Warsaw.

"German-Polish relations after Germany's reunification have been one of the European success stories when it comes to international diplomacy," Lang said. "Because of the countries' common goal for Polish accession to the European Union, historic and traditional political conflicts were set aside. But since May 1, 2004, that common goal is gone."

Not only is the goal gone, but also have the players changed: The Kaczynski party is skeptical toward deeper EU integration and against quickly joining the euro zone.

On the global policy scene, a first disagreement between Berlin and Warsaw surfaced over the U.S.-led Iraq war, which Germany fiercely opposed and Poland actively backed. And the political friendship between Russian President Vladimir Putin and outgoing German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder has always been a thorn in the eye of Polish politicians.

"It's the old fear to become politically encircled by Germany and Russia," Lang said. "But while Russia is seen as a source of instability and a security threat in Poland, it is a privileged strategic partner for Germany. Berlin wants to become Moscow's first contact in the European Union."

The Schroeder-Putin friendship did its best to cultivate that commitment -- the close alliance resulted, among other things, in a decision to build a gas pipeline from Russia to Germany via the Baltic Sea, bypassing Poland. Warsaw wants Berlin to have the pipeline re-routed or cancelled, as it sees its energy future in jeopardy. The country relies heavily on Russian oil and gas supply, and Warsaw fears Moscow, in future conflicts, could cut off oil and gas flow to Poland and use the new pipeline as a threat.

Politicians in Warsaw had hoped for a clear conservative victory in Germany's Sept. 18 elections and thus a turnaround of German foreign policy. But voters failed to hand Angela Merkel's conservatives a clear majority; the new left-right grand coalition will likely alter the tone, but not the direction of German foreign policy, observers say. Soon-to-be Chancellor Merkel and Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier are unlikely to reverse the previous government's decision to pursue the pipeline. After all, the deal includes major potential profits for German companies -- in light of Germany's struggling economy, the German-Russian pipeline is a welcome project.

A lesser project seems to be nearly as controversial: The Alliance of Displaced Persons, a German organization led by Erika Steinbach, a Christian Democrat lawmaker, is committed to build a remembrance center for German World War II exiles. While the project lacks explicit support from Berlin, Kazcynski asked the German government to put an end to it. During World War II, Germans killed more than 5 million Poles, a trauma that hasn't left the country's roughly 38 million citizens.

"It would be best for German-Polish relations if the center was never built," he told the German daily Bild on Wednesday. Kazcynski also argued he didn't win the vote with the help of bashing Germans, but that he was in contrast an "ally and friend" to them.

There are more conflicts on the horizon, however, as the question over the EU constitution looms. Warsaw has been an outspoken critic of the constitution, with Germany supporting it.

"Kazcynski is not against the EU, but he is clearly EU-skeptic," Lang said. "That includes a reluctance to give more authorities to Brussels. The president's party also fears a Franco-German dominance inside the body."

Kazcynski's Law and Justice Party vowed to strengthen Poland's position within Europe and shape a policy that is "worthy of such a grand European nation," the party wrote in its election program. While Polish foreign policy in the pamphlet gets discussed on more than 15 pages, Germany is not mentioned once -- a fact that has Lang scratching his head. "Germany still is its direct neighbor and has so far been an ally," he said.

There are others, however, who say Kazcynski's populist campaign promises won't trouble Berlin.

"His tough campaign rhetoric won't affect Polish policymaking," Gesine Schwan, the German government's Poland commissioner, said Tuesday in an interview with German public radio.

And Horst Koehler, Germany's federal president, has always fostered close personal relationships with Polish politicians. He was born in 1943 in Skierbieszów in what was then German-occupied Poland. He is considered a guarantor of good relations with Warsaw.

Klaus Segbers, political expert at the Eastern Europe Institute at Berlin's Free University, said there is much more common ground between the two countries than initially meets the eye.

"Kazcynski made some of those statements to win the election," Segbers Wednesday told UPI. "The political decision makers in Germany and Poland are not a long way away from each other. I don't think he will affect the general relationship between the two countries much."