MOSCOW, June 30 (UPI) -- Scheduled to be chairman of the Group of 8 in 2006, Russian President Vladimir Putin has publicly stated he has closely observed how Britain has used its leading role this year to have other member countries address its agenda. This year the issues are Africa and climate change, next year Putin is expected to promote stability in Central Asia.
Leading up to the July 6-8 Gleneagles summit in Scotland, again there have been calls to either suspend or expel Russia from the most exclusive club in the world. Politicians from member countries, including Germany, Italy, Japan, the United States and Canada, claim there are many reasons to question Russia's membership, ranging from its lack of wealth in comparison to other members to claims Russia does not share the same democratic and market values as the rest of the group.
Igor Shuvalov, an aide to Putin and Russia's representative to the G-8, is aware of these criticisms and has acknowledged the recent break-up of Russia's largest oil company Yukos and the imprisonment of its former head Mikhail Khodorkovsky has damaged Russia reputation among G8 members.
"We will have to work hard to overcome the Yukos effect," Shuvalov said. "We will have to work for a long time, for years" to reinvigorate the business climate and demonstrate to investors that Yukos was a "single case."
At the same time, Shuvalov claims the G8 needs Russia as much as the Russia needs the G8. Russia's per capita wealth does not even come close to poorest of the other seven members of the group, but it does have what the G8 needs, as well as rest of the world: oil and natural gas.
"The economic reasons of why we must be in the club are obvious," Shuvalov said. "We will be increasing oil exports year by year, we are prepared to guarantee stable energy supplies to our partners to secure their stable development for decades ahead."
Russia is Europe's biggest exporter of oil and natural gas and the world's second-largest oil producer after Saudi Arabia.
When Russia takes the lead of the G8 next year, energy will certainly be on the agenda, but also efforts to promote stability in post-Soviet Central Asia. These two issues are not only vitally important to Russia, but for the world community as well. Given Britain's agenda this year Russia's future agenda may have a better chance of success.
Putin is set to support British Prime Minister Tony Blair's initiatives. African debt to Russia is not particularly large and the Kremlin began forgiving the debt of some of the world's poorest countries years ago. On climate change, Russia is a signatory to the Kyoto Protocol. Thus, Putin's role during this G-8 summit is expected to a bit part at best.
For this year's summit, Russia's positions are clear and with the majority. What Putin will probably be keenest to watch is statecraft in play. Given the harsh criticisms directed at Russia over the past 18 months, the Kremlin will surely be taking notes on how to conduct a successful summit and how to push its expect agenda next year.
Putin's choice to promote stability in Central Asia is an issue all members of the G8 can recognize as important. Some commentators see Putin's agenda as a disingenuous cover in reaction to the recent peaceful revolutions in Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan. However, Putin's interest in the post-Soviet space is transparent: security there creates security for Russia and protects energy supply routes.
Among the initiatives Putin might promote is international supervision of economic aid to some of the poorest countries on its borders. According to Shuvalov, "It's very important to let those poor countries, such as Moldova, develop. For example, a poor Georgia would be a big danger for us." Combating the drugs trade in Central Asia is also an issue that G8 can play a constructive role.
Promoting stability in Central Asia is crucial in the war on terrorism. While the United States and Russia have military installations in many Central Asian countries to counter terrorist threats, economic and other forms of aid can address many of the root causes of terrorism possible in the first place.
All G8 members have an interest in promoting stability in Central Asia because of the region's growing importance in supplying petroleum to world markets and as an alternative to the volatile Middle East.
It remains to be seen if Blair can pull off a major success during the Gleneagles summit. The odds are stacked against him -- the United States has its own Africa policy and remains rigid in the face international concerns regarding global warming.
Putin is surely watching carefully and most certainly will focus on an agenda that all member of the G8 can agree upon next year. Given the growing importance of and dangers in Central Asia, disagreeing with Putin's agenda will be difficult.
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Peter Lavelle is United Press International's Moscow correspondent.
