WASHINGTON, June 3 (UPI) -- The visit to Pakistani Kashmir by separatist leaders from Indian Kashmir is another sign of warming relations between the two nuclear-armed rivals, experts say.
"It's a sign of confidence in the peace process," said Walter Andersen of Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies. "The relations between the two countries are warming."
Nine separatist leaders walked across the Kaman Bridge on the Jhelum River, which forms part of the Line of Control, the de facto border between the two countries, and then drove to Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistani Kashmir.
The leaders belong to the All Parties Hurriyat Conference, an umbrella organization for separatist groups that are engaged in a 15-year-old rebellion against Indian rule in Kashmir. The region is predominantly Hindu India's only Muslim-majority state. India has long accused Muslim Pakistan of aiding the rebels, but Islamabad has denied the charge, saying it provide the separatists moral support only.
The Kashmiri team from India met with counterparts on the Pakistani side, along with officials in Islamabad, including President Pervez Musharraf. The visit, which was approved by the Indian government, could not have occurred without the rapidly improving ties between the two nations, which led Musharraf to tell the Financial Times in an interview Thursday that he expected the Kashmir dispute to be solved by 2007.
"You are clearly in the process of détente," said Dennis Kux, senior policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.
The Hurriyat trip is part of a peace process to settle the Kashmir dispute, responsible for two wars between the neighbors. It is the first time India allowed Kashmiri separatists as a representative group to travel from Indian Kashmir to Pakistan.
Kux said India's acquiescence marked a major shift in its stance. He said irrespective of the outcome of the visit, the act of allowing leaders to visit was laudable in itself.
Andersen agreed. He said it was unthinkable a few years ago for India even to contemplate giving such permission.
"It demonstrates a greater ease in relations," he said.
In April, the two neighbors agreed to a bus link between divided Kashmir to help unite thousands of families separated for more than half a century as part of confidence-building measures. This was one of the steps of the peace process that had a direct bearing on Kashmiris.
Andersen said the involvement of Kashmiris in the process was a welcome move. He said this was a step in the right direction as no solution could have been feasible without its acceptance by the people of Kashmir.
However, the trip wasn't entirely smooth. India stopped separatist leader Shabir Ahmad Shah from crossing the border because he declared his nationality as Kashmiri instead of Indian in his passport application.
There are also doubts whether Hurriyat truly represents the will of the Kashmiris. Andersen said Hurriyat was a "very divided" organization and in the absence of any polls or surveys it was difficult to gauge their influence. He said Hurriyat definitely represented "a view" but not "the view" of the Kashmiri people.
A hard-line faction of Hurriyat, led by Syed Ali Shah Geelani, refused to join the trip, accusing Pakistan of diluting its stand to appease New Delhi.
The United Jihad Council, an alliance of around a dozen militant organizations, based in Pakistani Kashmir also said it would not meet the separatist leaders. They are angry over what they see as Pakistan offering too many concessions to India over Kashmir without what they see as anything in return from New Delhi.
Andersen said he wasn't surprised by Geelani's move.
"They must be very upset," he said. "They would like nothing better than the talks to collapse."
He said the absence of the hard-line faction would not cause major damage adding he had "serious doubts" if the hard-liners were interested in peace.
Kux said this opposition would "fizzle out" as ordinary Kashmiris got a taste of the openness caused by the peace process.
Andersen said he expected more talking and incremental steps in border crossings after this visit. However, he said, there was still the possibility of the peace process falling apart.
"The wildcard is the resumption of terrorism," he said.
Kux said the current steps were part of a process that at least for now seemed to be moving at a fast pace, but, he warned: "This is not the end game by any means."
