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Overture to ETA fraught with uncertainty

By ELIZABETH BRYANT

PARIS, May 19 (UPI) -- Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero appears to relish breaking taboos.

Since taking power a year ago, he has pushed through Spain's first gay marriage law, and vowed to relax restrictions against abortions and divorces. Members of his Socialist Party also favor following Belgium and the Netherlands in legalizing euthanasia.

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Now Zapatero appears poised to launch another first -- open talks with the Basque separatist group ETA, aimed at ending nearly 40 years of terrorism in Spain.

The 44-year-old prime minister is certainly not the first Spanish leader to talk with ETA -- previous governments under both Popular Party Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar and that of Socialist Felipe Gonzales held secret negotiations with the Basque group. But Zapatero is the first leader to seek -- and get -- formal endorsement by the Spanish parliament, which voted in favor of the initiative Tuesday.

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A bold step toward achieving lasting peace in a country where more than 800 people have been killed by ETA? Or a foolish and hasty move by an ambitious but inexperienced leader?

Only time will tell whether Zapatero's gamble will pay off, but initial reactions from experts and activists on both sides of the ETA debate are not promising.

Some argue that neither ETA nor Zapatero's leftist government is in an ideal position to begin negotiations -- and the two sides harbor different dreams about the outcome.

Moreover, both are stumbling into uncharted territory; there are no similar situations, either in Northern Ireland or elsewhere, that might serve as a possible model for Spain, experts say. Still, just the act of sitting down at a negotiating table may bring positive results.

"The government is clear that implementing more security solutions in Basque country doesn't work," said Sergio Carrera, research fellow at the Center for European Policy Studies in Brussels. Zapatero, he believes, is convinced that allowing different parties in the Basque struggle to express their political views "may facilitate a more long term and permanent solution."

But whether dialogue is enough to bridge two clashing viewpoints of the Basque country -- that of Madrid, which considers the affluent northern region an intrinsic part of Spain; and that of ETA, which wants to carve out an independent state in parts of northern Spain and southwestern France -- is another matter.

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"The claims and goals of this organization are rather utopian," Carrera added. "...and the government isn't likely to agree on these rather utopian claims."

Nonetheless the Batasuna Party, considered ETA's political wing, has greeted the news with guarded approval.

"We think this is good news, but it's also insufficient," Batasuna spokesman Joseba Alvarez said in a telephone interview, referring to the parliamentary vote. "But we've said before that a political agreement can't be reached just between the government and ETA. It must come about through a roundtable that includes all the political voices" in the Basque country.

In some ways, Zapatero has chosen a propitious moment to seek a dialogue with ETA. The acronym of Euskadi Ta Askatasuna, or Basque Homeland and Liberty in the ancient Euskera language, ETA is possibly at its weakest point since it was founded in 1959.

More than 700 ETA fighters are in Spanish jails. Enforced cross-border cooperation between French and Spanish police has succeeded in arresting dozens of ETA leaders in recent years -- though analysts note the group has a hydra-like quality of producing new ones.

Still today, experts like Jean Chalvidant estimate the current numbers of ETA fighters at only 200.

"Usually, one should negotiate from a position of strength. Is ETA in a position of strength? Not at all," said Chalvidant, a French analyst who has written extensively about ETA over the years. "ETA has never been so weak."

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Nor is Zapatero in a position of strength, Chalvidant said, noting lawmakers from Spain's main opposition group, the conservative Popular Party, refused to endorse the talks Tuesday.

"Ideally a leader should have a whole nation behind him. But Zapatero doesn't have a consensus," Chalvidant said. "So we have a very curious position at the start of the negotiations."

Whether ETA-government negotiations will even begin anytime soon is anybody's guess.

Zapatero has reportedly outlined extremely limited concessions he is willing to make -- and a tall order for ETA: To renounce violence, not just call another cease-fire, before any talks can start.

In return, the leftist government is reportedly prepared to discuss issues like returning ETA prisoners to Basque jails, or offering parole to others. Any discussion about more autonomy for the region -- not to mention ETA's demand for outright independence -- is out of the question.

Even if ETA is prepared to agree to Zapatero's terms -- which appears unlikely -- nobody is quite sure about the next step. Northern Ireland's shaky peace accord is not a plausible blueprint, analysts say.

"When it comes to comparing ETA with IRA, these organizations have different goals, different methods and different outputs and different identities," said Carrera. "So a plan to solve this serious problem of ETA needs to be singular, and take into account the peculiarities of this organization."

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Indeed, some critics reject any idea of negotiating with the Basque terrorist group. That not only includes Popular Party lawmakers, but civilian groups like the Association of Victims of Terrorism.

"Talking to ETA means legitimizing the attacks ETA has committed -- the assassinations, the woundings, the kidnappings," said the association's president, Francisco Alcarez, who favors instead the approach adopted by the previous Aznar government. "To deal with ETA, you need to follow the law -- not talk to assassins. There's nothing to negotiate."

Chalvidant, the terrorism expert, also fears Zapatero's initiative could be disastrous -- but for different reasons. He predicts that if the Basque country is eventually granted some sort of independent status as a result of dialogue with ETA, other Spanish regions will request a similar status.

"It's opening up Pandora's box," Chalvidant said. "I don't know whether down the line, Spain could continue as a nation state."

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