Politics & Policies: Leaving Gaza not easy

WASHINGTON, April 17 (UPI) -- Israel is beginning to realize that evacuating the Gaza Strip is turning out to be a somewhat harder task than it was occupying it.

Amir Oren writes in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, that in 1967 the Israeli Defense Forces needed three divisions -- one regular and two reserves -- to conquer Sinai and Gaza. Now, in 2005, the IDF will need three divisions -- two regular and one reserve -- to evacuate Gaza alone.

Additionally, writes Oren, for the first time in its history, the Israel police will also deploy two divisional frameworks to assist in the evacuation of settlements.

In the June 1967 Six-Day War, during which time Israel captured Gaza, the Israeli army fought simultaneously on three fronts, or at least maintained military operations on three fronts while concentrating effort on one front at a time.

Not being able to conduct full offensives on the three theaters of war at the same time, Israeli forces gave priority to the Egyptian front. It later shifted forces around as needed.

Israeli troops battled Egyptian forces in Gaza and the Sinai; they clashed with the Syrians on the Golan Heights; they engaged Jordan's Bedouin army on the West Bank; and in fierce house-to-house combat, they fought for control of the old city of Jerusalem.

Paradoxically, this time around, Israel is finding that it will lack the forces needed to complete the pullout of four northern West Bank settlements while conducting the Gaza withdrawal.

Logistically, pulling out form Gaza will demand more time than its capture. The evacuation planned to start July 25 will last longer than the Six-Day War. Haaretz reports three different dates have been mentioned for the end of operations, depending on the progress of the evacuation, as well as how much resistance the government meets from the settlers and their backers. Another factor the Israeli military is forced to consider is the likelihood of attacks from militant Palestinians.

"The earliest, and seemingly least realistic," date, reports the Israeli daily, is Aug. 12. Another date being mentioned is Sept. 1, and the third "being the bleakest" is Oct. 2, on the eve of Rosh Hashana.

That would mean that given the best scenario, the evacution of Gaza would take at least 18 days -- three times as long as it took to occupy Gaza, Sinai, the Golan, the West Bank and East Jerusalem in 1967.

One of the major differences between Gaza in 1967 and today is that during the June war Israel "only" had the Egyptian army -- and a very limited and disorganized Palestinian resistance -- to contend with. The Egyptian air force, as well as Syria's and Jordan's, had been decimated in pre-emptive strikes, giving Israel complete dominance of the skies.

Initially, Moshe Dayan, at the time Israel's minister of Defense, forbade Israeli troops from entering the 25-mile Gaza Strip, hoping to avoid getting involved with the 250,000 Palestinians living in Gaza's narrow city streets and over-crowded refugee camps. Israel's intent was to by-pass the Strip.

However, shortly after the beginning of hostilities, Palestinian forces in the Strip fired on two nearby Israeli settlements, bringing the war to Gaza. Acting under orders of Yitzhak Rabin, then chief of staff, Israeli forces entered Gaza.

"Rabin overuled Dayan's orders and instructed a mechanized brigade" to enter the Gaza Strip, wrote Michael B. Oren in his book "Six Days of War."

In contrast today, the Israelis face a Palestinian population of over a million and the possibility of a very organized Islamist Palestinian resistance. Additionally, a large number of disgruntled Israelis, angered at the forced removal of the settlements, could turn violent. Their violence could be directed at Muslim holy sites in Jerusalem, at the Palestinians, or quite possibly at the Israeli military trying to evict them.

"The IDF's basic assumption is that most of the residents will not evacuate willingly, so we must prepare for a forced evacuation," Haaretz's Oren wrote.

A number of rabbis, right-wing groups and settlers are calling on Israeli soldiers and police to dissent, and to refuse orders asking them to forcefully evict Jewish settlers from Gaza and four West Bank settlements.

It is also conceivable that some extremist Palestinian factions will try to profit from the evacuation, and the chaos it creates, to launch attacks against Israel and/or the settlers.

"It will not be easy," said Ehud Olmert, Israel's deputy prime minister in a recent conversation. "It will be difficult," said Olmert.

The risk of violence emanating from settlers, and their supporters, wishing to resist the evacuation exists, said Olmert. "The danger is there."

Protesters opposed to the pullout blocked a major highway near Tel Aviv, Saturday, causing disruption to a graduation ceremony of Israeli army officers.

Pro-settlement protesters plan more demonstrations between now and July. The schism in Israeli society has even made Prime Minister Ariel Sharon comment on the fear of civil war in Israel.

Appearing on CNN during his visit to Washington last week, Sharon said, "the atmosphere in Israel is an atmosphere that looks like the eve of civil war."

Former prime minister Ehud Barak has spoken recently of a small group of extremists -- some of whom are graduates of elite Israeli army units -- who might be planning to carry out attacks to thwart the withdrawal.

The Israeli military and security establishment may well face their toughest assignment yet this summer.

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