LA PAZ, Bolivia, March 21 (UPI) -- Bolivia's political situation is like a long road on which we make little progress. The paradox proved apt recently, with President Carlos Diego Mesa Gisbert resigning and resuming the presidency in a tumultuous political week.
According to analyst Maria Teresa Zegada, Mesa's resignation was sincere in the sense that it happened at an unbearable moment, but his subsequent return was out of proportion. Zegada theorized: "It was probably a frank resignation in response to the country's internal blockade situation. Now, what seems to me to be out of proportion is his return, with a totally fragile base of political support and only partial agreements that do not solve the country's mounting problems. I believe that the president should have concluded a far more sustainable agreement to return, but because he has returned, the adverse conditions and the conflict nevertheless remain almost the same ones present the previous week."
Those adverse conditions were delineated by Mesa's administration's interpretation of the July 2004 referendum in which they were looking for a consensus on the operation and ownership of the country's enormous natural gas reserves, the second largest in all of South America. In the referendum's fifth question, the president suggested the increase of the "exemptions and/or taxes" up to 50 percent.
On that question, the "yes" votes overwhelmingly prevailed, which presupposed the elaboration of a bill to implement the tax increase. As months went by, it slowly became clear that the syntactic use of the "and/or" was ambiguous, as the government did nothing to implement the measure.
According to Zegada's explanation, the problem of the ambiguity lies in a dual interpretation with respect to the national hydrocarbon law. In order to reach that 50 percent, Mesa's government proposed a progressive tax on production of up to 32 percent and to maintain the exemptions, a fixed payment for exploration of 18 percent, thereby accomplishing the referendum's 50 percent mandate. In contrast, the unions headed by the Movement To Socialism, or MAS, headed by Evo Morales, propose that the exemptions be raised to 50 percent and that the exploration taxes charged separately.
That discussion, enmeshed with other political problems, was ended by Mesa's departure and subsequent return, after which he signed several agreements with other branches of the government. However, many think that is not enough.
"I see a very complex situation," Zegada commented. "I believe that the only possible solution for Mesa would be for him to come up with an agreement with the main opposition party MAS and with the social sectors. The agreement that sanctioned the President's return is too ambiguous and general."
According to Zegada, a viable way forward for Mesa is to deal directly with the representatives of the country's civil society. In order to assemble a sustainable government, Mesa would need to have parliamentary support which goes significantly beyond the signed agreements. It will have to put into operation the bills beyond the hydrocarbon law which he agreed to with the citizenry.
"Those agreements made by the president with societal sectors and Parliament are still waiting for Mesa's approval so they can become law. Anyway, these issues were already under discussion several weeks ago, during which they were simply being expanded," she said.
Despite Mesa's difficulties, the opposition, headed by Morales, did not benefit substantially. Zegada noted that when evaluating the political confrontation between the government and the opposition, the government lost because the crisis weakened Mesa's power base, but the debilitation did strengthen the opposition. "Evidently with such radical opposition at present, the middle class and intellectuals that had been supporting Morales no longer consider him as a viable option for the country. I believe that he has lost ground in terms of building up of his leadership towards the presidency by the democratic route. He also came out damaged by his own radicalism," said Zegada.
Both sides have been looking for accord, but the days go by under the same premise of a long process with few immediate advances. A possible solution, according to Zegada, is to forge an agreement that benefits both parties, a compromise, because any radical move would harm Bolivia nationally before percolating down and injuring any group in particular. In the end, Zegada says, compromise must be achieved on the ambiguous hydrocarbon law before pressing on to the country's host of other problems.
"I believe that a sustainable hydrocarbon law would have to look for a balance between maintaining the interests of the transnational companies and those of the country because we have many natural resources but not the technological and productive capacity to explore them,"
Unfortunately for Mesa and his administration, time appears to be running out. Unlike last week, Mesa comes out from his most recent crisis weakened, leaving analysts wondering if he will indeed complete his mandate, which expires in 2007. Only a week ago, Congress leaders supported him, but not now, after a serious setback there for his administration.
Bolivia's lower chamber passed a new energy law that meets leftist opposition demands better than government conditions. The law, which still has to be ratified by the Senate, raises taxes on oil foreign corporations from 18 percent to 50 percent, something that Mesa considers unviable and the beginning of "Bolivia's isolation from the international community."
Mesa fiddled while the hydrocarbon bill burned. The only question for the country now is, "What next?"
(Jairo Patino is a writer with Tiempos del Mundo)
