Ukraine -- country of the year

MOSCOW, Dec. 31 (UPI) -- Ukraine ends the year a changed country. The election of opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko as president, after three intensely fought ballots sets Ukraine on a new course -- full of opportunities and new difficulties.

It is the country of the year.

At the start of 2004, a very corrupt political elite poorly ruled Ukraine. The European Union had little interest in Ukraine's fate. Russia too didn't think much about Ukraine, seeing the country as an extension of itself. Ukrainians surprised the world and most likely themselves with their "Orange Revolution." Long marginalized on the international stage, Ukraine ends the year as a country of importance.

Rejecting outgoing President Leonid Kuchma's "operation successor" to have his handpicked candidate Viktor Yanukovych inherit the presidency by means of tainted elections, the majority of Ukrainians have taken their country's fate into their own hands. However, the intense scenes of civic activism played out in the street in Kiev and elsewhere in the country have exposed some of the deep divisions among Ukrainians and controversy concerning Ukraine's geopolitical positioning.

Domestically and internationally, Ukraine's presidential campaigns and elections have been about divisions. Eastern and southern Ukraine, with large Russian minorities, continue to look to Russia as more than just a neighbor. More prosperous and industrialized than western Ukraine, the east and the south are very reliant on trade with Russia. With the economy controlled by a small group of "oligarchs," the "Orange Revolution" failed to make much of an impression on voters in these regions. Overcoming this division will be at the top of Yushchenko's domestic agenda.

Ukraine's domestic divisions were magnified many fold internationally. Charges of outside meddling in Ukraine's elections stressed Russia's relations with the West. Vladimir Putin openly supported and even campaigned for Yanukovych. Kremlin spin-doctors with enormous sums of cash worked as advisers to Yanukovych campaign efforts. The West also did its share of meddling. Also with no shortage of cash, Western non-governmental organizations and other foreign organizations such as PORA! (It's Time!) supported Yushchenko's candidacy.

Foreign interest in Ukraine's domestic politics turned into an international war of words when the Nov. 21 runoff election was declared invalid by the country's Supreme Court, citing massive vote fraud and other election irregularities. Russia was instantly branded as a neo-imperialist attempting return Ukraine to the Kremlin's fold. Russia retorted that Western inspired "rent-a-crowd for revolution" is undemocratic.

Counter-intuitively, both perceptions contain an element of truth. Russia's interest in Ukraine's election was defensive in nature. Russia's foreign policy is attempting to limit the loss of influence on its borders, not expand influence. The charge that Russia is in an aggressive expansionary mode under Putin is simply nonsensical. Western support of democratic change in the world is perfectly reasonable. However, inciting regime changes on Russia's borders creates instability that the Kremlin has a legitimate interest in wishing to avoid.

The international tensions that erupted over Ukraine's election have started to subside. This is as it should be -- Ukraine under a Yushchenko presidency will not move west or east. Located between Europe and Russia, Ukraine will pursue strong relations with both. In a move to mend fences with Russia, Yushchenko has announced his first state visit will be to meet Putin.

However, international relations will not be on the top of Yushchenko's agenda as he assumes office. How to rule effectively at home is what probably concerns him most. To get the presidency through a fair vote, Yushchenko and his close political allies agreed to a significantly watered-down prize.

Many of the powers of the presidency will be transferred to Parliament. Constitutional amendments passed in early December award the president control over the military, security forces and foreign policy. The position of prime minister will be decided by Parliament. The presidency will have the right to veto passed legislation and can be overridden by a parliament with a two-thirds parliamentary vote. At present, Yushchenko's supporters control about a third of the seats in Parliament.

With limited powers, Yushchenko will have to be an extremely adroit politician to push through his reform agenda. With Parliament the nexus of political power and very susceptible to the enormous financial power Ukraine's oligarchs weld, completing the "Orange Revolution" will not be an easy task.

The election of Viktor Yushchenko is an important first step for Ukraine and those desiring change after a decade of misrule under Kuchma. He has the majority of Ukrainians behind him and he will have to continue to tap into that support to succeed. Yushchenko has no other choice. The presidency he will assume was designed by Kuchma and his people with the sole intent of limiting Yushchenko's plans for change.

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(Peter Lavelle is a Moscow-based analyst and the author of the electronic newsletter on Russia, Untimely Thoughts, at untimely-thoughts.com.)