N. Korea to face critical decision in 2005

SEOUL, Dec. 31 (UPI) -- For North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, 2005 could be a decisive year in determining the fate of his isolated regime, which has been in a prolonged standoff with the United States over his nuclear ambitions.

The critical question facing Kim next year is how to cope with growing U.S.-led pressure.

If Kim chooses the nuclear option, he is likely to suffer the same fate as former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, as U.S. hard-liners call for regime change, or at least regime transformation, to end North Korea's nuclear drive.

Without the nuclear card in hand, however, Kim fears he has no powerful deterrent against the United States, which Pyongyang says is seeking to attack North Korea.

Either way, Kim's regime will likely face mounting international pressure in 2005 to give up its nuclear weapons programs, analysts say.

"North Korea stands at a grave crossroad, determining whether it will continue in isolation with the nuclear option or opt for openness and disarmament," said Choi Jin-wook, a researcher at the Korean Institute for National Unification in Seoul. "Next year will be a critical moment for North Korea," he said.

Disarming North Korea and Iran, along with quelling the insurgency in Iraq, are likely to be defining foreign policy issues in U.S. President George W. Bush's second term.

Kim Tae-woo, a nuclear strategy analyst at the Korea Institute for Defense Analysis, said that as Iran has promised to allow international inspectors to extensively check its nuclear facilities, U.S. disarmament efforts would be focused on North Korea.

"In a role-divide, the European Union deals with Iran, while the United States focuses its efforts on curbing North Korea's nuclear ambitions," Kim said.

"North Korea dominated U.S. presidential election campaigns in November, and thus the nuclear issue has become too big to be ignored," said Jang Hoon, a professor at Chung-Ang University.

"After the second Bush administration completes its policy review in the first half, it is expected to come up with sticks to end North Korea's nuclear standoff later next year," he said.

"The Bush administration is likely to step up efforts to end the North's nuclear ambitions as part of much-touted campaigns against terrorism," said Ha Young-sun, an international relations professor at Seoul National University.

The United States has warned repeatedly that it would do whatever necessary to prevent North Korea from obtaining nuclear weapons and has stepped up vigilance on the movement of dangerous equipment or technology to that country.

Pyongyang has long sought a public pledge that the United States would not try to topple Kim Jong Il's dictatorial regime, and North Korean officials have said that such a promise could resolve the nuclear standoff.

Many analysts in Seoul say at stake is South Korea's much-touted role in resolving the North Korean nuclear issue.

President Roh Moo-hyun has used most of his rare overseas trips to win international support for Seoul's mediating role in defusing the two-year-long nuclear standoff. He has warned Washington against taking a tougher stance toward North Korea, saying Pyongyang would eventually make a "strategic" decision.

Roh's warning to U.S. hard-liners was highlighted during his visit to France in December. In a speech in Paris, Roh said he would risk worsening ties with neo-conservatives in the Bush administration over how to deal with North Korea.

"Now, it is high time for South Korea to boost its role in North Korea's nuclear issue," said Cho Tae-yong, chief of Seoul's task force for the nuclear dispute. "We could no longer remain sidelined over the North's nuclear issue," he said.

Park Jong-churl, a researcher at the Korean Institute for National Unification, Seoul's government think tank, called for the dispatch of a high-level envoy to North Korea to persuade it to make a bold decision to resolve the nuclear problem in return for political and economic benefits.

Koh Yu-hwan, a North Korea specialist at Dongguk University, said an inter-Korean summit would be necessary next year to reach a breakthrough. "The summit would pave the way for the resolution of the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula through negotiations between the two Koreas," he said.

But Kim Tae-hyun, who teaches international relations at Chung-Ang University, cautioned against Seoul's moves toward a key role in attempting to resolve the nuclear question, describing Roh's campaign as a "high-risk, high-return" gamble.

"If North Korea comes up with corresponding offers to break the nuclear impasse through negotiations with South Korea, President Roh's bid would pay off," he said. "But if the North dismisses Seoul's proposals and sticks to its earlier calls for direct talks, Roh would suffer a serious setback in the diplomatic arena."

North Korea has long demanded direct talks with the United States to seek ways to resolve the nuclear standoff, saying the dispute is a result of the "hostile" U.S. policy toward the North.