Commentary: Calm before the storm

WASHINGTON, Dec. 23 (UPI) -- The capital of the world's most powerful nation felt like a ghost town Thursday. President George W. Bush was away in nearby Camp David for the Christmas holiday. Congress was adjourned. The daily swell (swill?) of news conferences, fact sheets, news releases and canned statements was virtually non-existent.

Preening and posturing were thankfully confined to television news anchors and chatteratti cable-program guests.

Good thing, too. The capital and the nation could well do with a bit of relief. Ahead lies another rocky road.

-- Iraq. It dominated the past year. It certainly isn't going away. Early in the new year the president is expected to ask Congress for at least $70 billion -- and perhaps as much as $100 billion -- to keep paying for military operations there. Last year it was $87 billion when you added in ongoing operations in Afghanistan.

The new supplemental would push the cost of war to well more than $200 billion overall at a time when the federal deficit is north of $400 billion.

Meanwhile the death toll rises. More than 1,000 U.S. troops have perished in Iraq since March 2003 and more than 9,000 have been wounded, many grievously. The president and military warn of many more casualties ahead as terrorists and rebels do all they can to block -- or at least severely damage -- national elections and the democratization process Washington hopes will eventually justify, and in some way, make up for the loss of American life and treasure.

Fifty-six percent of 1,004 people in the United States polled for ABC News and The Washington Post Dec. 16-19 said it won't, that the war in Iraq was not worth fighting; 70 percent said the casualty rate was unacceptable even when measuring it against the goal of establishing a democratic state. Yet, underlining the dichotomy in American thinking on the war, 58 percent said they were against a premature withdrawal.

-- Social Security. Reforming America's safety net for the retired is a key goal in Bush's second-term agenda and one fraught with cost, politically as well as monetarily. Bush and others argue the system is breaking down and will be insolvent by 2042 when there are going to be just two workers paying for the benefits of one retiree under the pay-as-you-go system. Bush has so far avoided laying out a detailed reform plan to avoid giving opponents too much lead time for attacks. Instead he has proposed three principles of reform: no increase in payroll tax deductions, no cut in benefits to current retirees and those nearing retirement and inclusion of a voluntary private investment provision under which workers would be allowed to take part of their normal Social Security deduction and put it in the market for higher dollar return.

Labor unions, advocacy groups and Democrats are yelping. A battle royal is expected. But complicating matters for Bush is that some Republicans may oppose him as well. The transition cost for a system incorporating the investment scheme could hit $1 trillion-2 trillion; and 2006 is an election year, meaning all the House members and a third of the Senate would face worried voters.

Bush, despite expressions to the contrary by the Michael Moores of the world, is not a stupid man. Throughout the 2004 campaign he stressed the need to tackle Social Security reform, and in the post-election period he has kept up the refrain.

"The first step in this process is for members of Congress to realize we have a problem ... because if people don't think there is a problem, we can, you know, talk about this issue until we are blue in the face, and nothing will get done," Bush said Monday in a news conference. "It's a lot less painful to act now than if we wait."

Such recognition by lawmakers, and especially the public, could get Bush a similar result as with Iraq in future polling: the vast majority of Americans hearing and taking to heart his plea on realizing the goal despite misgivings over methods.

-- Immigration. U.S. borders are porous. Illegal immigrants from south of the border number in the millions. Bush is adamant on moving forward a proposal to establish a guest-worker program as part of a fix to the issue. Opponents, including many Republicans in border states, consider regularizing the status of illegals now in the country represents an unacceptable amnesty. Pro-immigrant advocacy groups, however, say a worker program would be insufficient and want total amnesty.

Coloring the debate -- in addition to charges of racism that are sure to fly -- are the security issues. Safeguarding the country's borders and controlling who enters and for how long are all part of homeland security.

Other battles looming include reforming the tax code, moving against frivolous law suits, lowering health costs and new educational initiatives.

"He's got a six months window. That is the maximum any president gets in being re-elected," Larry Sabato, head of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, said about a legislative honeymoon period with Congress. "I think he is going to get a lot of what he wants but it won't be easy, the legislative road is never easy."

And through it all will be the press releases, canned statements, talking heads, news conferences, political stunts, fact sheets, statistics, public moanings ...

Business as usual.

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(Please send comments to nationaldesk@upi.com.)